NO HEART, NO HEART, NO HEART

wheelz · #1 11-26-2005, 04:11 AM

MP1 is 18.6/12.7/2.11 and coincidentally has the same name as a mid-high 2+2 poster, CO is 27/10.2/0.62

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises, 2 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 caps, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, CO bets, Hero folds,

tizim · #2 11-26-2005, 05:38 AM

Here are some things to consider:

1) CO raise/called the flop, then just called the turn, so unless he slowplayed the turn with a flush, he must have a hand that was made on the flop that he wants to showdown (i.e. Ax, 33). If that's the case, he's less inclined to bluff the river because people usually don't bluff with showdownable hands last to act (think checking behind the river with A-high).

2) If you call the river, MP1 will be hard-pressed to overcall with AJ/JJ, so you don't really have to worry about him. It's almost like you're bluff-calling vs him.

Despite (1), I probably call this river because CO's stats suggest he doesn't really know what he's doing, and I think you'll catch him bluffing 1 in 14 times.

MCS · #3 11-26-2005, 07:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you'll catch him bluffing 1 in 14 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

With what hand? I'm not necessarily disagreeing, just saying we need to figure out what he can have that he would play this way which we still beat.

AK/AQ maybe.

tizim · #4 11-26-2005, 09:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you'll catch him bluffing 1 in 14 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

With what hand? I'm not necessarily disagreeing, just saying we need to figure out what he can have that he would play this way which we still beat.

AK/AQ maybe.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, by "bluffing," I meant betting any non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hand just because it's checked to him and he thinks he may be able to win the pot by betting. He obviously can't have complete air given the flop/turn action.

The problem here is it's hard to determine how a 27/10/.62 plays this river, since those stats are so weird. His stats show that he's bad, and bad players make surprisingly odd plays. I've seen a lot of loose passives who like to bluff/bet crap hands when shown weakness, and I wouldn't put it past this guy to bet something like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x on this river. Of course, he'll usually have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x, but our opponent plays weirdly, and we're getting 1:13 on a call.

Also, the "bluffing 1 in 14" figure I brought up earlier is wrong because sometimes (rarely), MP1 will overcall and win.

Danenania · #5 11-26-2005, 09:40 AM

I think it's okay given CO's extremely low aggression. Ah is a good fit for him given his flop raise and river bet. Or perhaps AxKh/AxQh. I don't see him ever not having a heart here though. MP1 must have either AJ or JJ or Ad3d. In any case I hate his river check.

BTW, what was your plan for a non-heart turn?

mc1023 · #6 11-26-2005, 01:50 PM

Pot is huge and .62 aggression doesn't mean he will not bluff here enough times to make this a call.

I'm curious though what his street by street aggression was and what his action %s on the river were.

If this was the average clueless monkey with street by street aggression of something like 0.32/0.42/2.0 or something along those lines this is a must call given size of the pot.

Often guys that have no idea what they're doing will make these kind of only way to win is to bet bluffs on the river. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like A8o with no heart.

wheelz · #7 11-26-2005, 09:08 PM

i was probably check/raising the turn. MP's cap was a bit scary but there was only his raise preflop and he's quite aggressive, so i think there's a good chance i still have the best hand. i thought he might even have AK or AQ. at the time.