QQ OOP with an overcard on the flop

Kyriefurro · #1 06-25-2005, 11:57 AM

This hand is typical of a situation I've been struggling with. I'd love some input.

The table overall is pretty loose passive, with one or two tags.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 (poster) checks, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (15 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds.

The sheer number of players who saw the flop means there's a VERY high chance someone's got a K. In theory , I should bet and whoever has the K would raise, especially if it's a weak K. I could then fold UI on the turn.

In practice, the K calls me down, leaving me spending a few more bets than I'd like to.

Should I just check this flop, or is that too weak tight?

Nick C · #2 06-25-2005, 05:42 PM

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Should I just check this flop, or is that too weak tight?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish I knew. This kind of situation comes up somewhat frequently when I play live.

For what it's worth, I would probably bet.

Edit: And after I did bet, I'd be hoping for fewer callers than you got. I'm not liking the looks of things, going into the turn.

dingbet · #3 06-25-2005, 05:48 PM

Betting the flop here is the correct play. Once you've been called in so many spots though, I would just give up on the hand unless i improve to a flush draw or set on the turn. You can be pretty certain you're beat, and although its hard to drop the queens, it should be easier with the K on board. The amount of opponents you have in this hand is what screws you over. If you were heads up, I may bet to the river, depending on my opponent.

ihardlyknowher · #4 06-25-2005, 05:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is typical of a situation I've been struggling with. I'd love some input.

The table overall is pretty loose passive, with one or two tags.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 (poster) checks, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (15 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds.

The sheer number of players who saw the flop means there's a VERY high chance someone's got a K. In theory , I should bet and whoever has the K would raise, especially if it's a weak K. I could then fold UI on the turn.

In practice, the K calls me down, leaving me spending a few more bets than I'd like to.

Should I just check this flop, or is that too weak tight?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would bet. The proability that no one as a K among 7 random hands is about 50%, granted Ks get played more often so it might be as low as 40%. But the pot is big, so you are not folding yet. Betting may get a hand like Ax to fold, which increases your chances to win. Plus, you have a pretty good BD flush draw.

Willluck · #5 06-25-2005, 05:52 PM

I normally bet here and get called down by a K all too often...maybe this is the weak-tight voice in my head talking but I might just check and see the turn for one bet, then fold UI.

Nick C · #6 06-25-2005, 06:04 PM

One thing to consider here is that at a table this loose (especially since there's a poster involved in addition to the small blind), trip 3's is a bigger concern that it would be at a tighter table.

I'm more worried about the king, but I do think trips is another legitimate concern.

W. Deranged · #7 06-25-2005, 06:13 PM

This may sound tight-weak, but I really don't think you have the correct effective odds to get to a showdown with this hand. Laying 2-3 BB to get to a showdown, looking to win a pot of, say, 15 BB (7 pre-flop, 3 flop, 3 turn, 3 river or so on average... I'm throwing these number out there), I think you will generally need to have around 20% equity in this pot to confidently continue profitably. Your odds of improving on the turn will be in the area of 7% (set outs plus backdoor), but you will not always win when you hit (your backdoor is not the nuts). Even when you are ahead, you are vulnerable to other cards (flush draws may be out, A's likely kill you). Even with the probability that there aren't K's or 3's out yet, I really don't see you winning significantly more than 20% of the time here.

This is all very vague math, but the combination of instinct and (somewhat limited) experience plus the numbers encourage me to not get crazy with this hand. I even think leading out in early position may be imprudent because you have about 0% chance of winning this with one bet on the flop.

akvsaq · #8 06-25-2005, 08:40 PM

I see this kind of situation often myself so let's discuss it. How about considering NOT betting out the flop but to check and see what develops.. If an EP player bets and gets several callers, you dump your QQ. A LP player bets, you check-raise to try to thin the field in this big pot. If any cold-callers, preparing to give up on the turn. What do you guys think of this idea???

ihardlyknowher · #9 06-25-2005, 08:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I see this kind of situation often myself so let's discuss it. How about considering NOT betting out the flop but to check and see what develops.. If an EP player bets and gets several callers, you dump your QQ. A LP player bets, you check-raise to try to thin the field in this big pot. If any cold-callers, preparing to give up on the turn. What do you guys think of this idea???

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have a specific read on an aggressive player in late position, I really like it. But you would hate to have this checked around if you have the best hand, especially if someone who ends up drawing out on you would have folded had you bet.

Ray Of Light · #10 06-25-2005, 09:18 PM

Well to me, this flop is an obvious bet out:

1. You have a backdoor draw to the second nut flush (as its the second nuts, and with so many players out there, there could be an Ace of spades that could trump your hand, so lets give back door draw 1 out rather than 1.5).

2. Plus you have two Queens out there that would give you queens full (so thats another two outs).

3. Altogether, even if you are behind, you have 3 outs, giving you 14.5 to 1 odds, and theres 15 sb's in the pot, with plenty more to come on the later streets if you do hit your hand. So you have plenty of cash incentive to bet out here.

4. Also, you need to give your opponents the oppurtunity to fold, thus reducing the large field. If you don't bet, you risk having it checked round, giving all and any hand out there infinite odds to draw for the next card. By betting out, you got the CO and SB to fold, thats a good thing.

5. And finally, you haven't got enough information yet to assume that you are behind to a King pair just yet. Its likely that you are behind to a king pair considering the number of your opponents, but you may very well have the best hand here. So bet and lead the field.

6. The pot is too big to protect here by check raising, and as the preflop raiser, you can't be sure that someone behind you will bet, allowing you to check raise.

Conclusion...

Bet the flop, and see what the turn brings. The pot is too big for you too start becoming passive.