PS 10+1 late

[TakenItEasy]

The problem with pushing here is that your risk reward is way too high. The stacks still have plenty of room here for a standard raise which will accomplish the same thing. 10XBB or 7X(blinds+antes) is about the correct size to start pushing when raising.

My guess is that BB was tight for a reason. He has plenty of money and can afford your steals. He sees you overbetting BTF too often so he tightens up and waits for you to give your stack away.

[Jah Red]

For me it really depends on the BB and how aggressive I perceive him to be. If I think he will raise if I complete, I'll probably fold. I don't like to play small aces OOP against agressive opponents. Too many times I flop an Ace only to get blown off the hand by the more agressive BB or Button. I am not desperate yet and I would prefer to wait for a better spot.

If the BB is not very aggressive I'll complete and play the flop.

No reads, I'll complete and play the flop or fold if the BB puts in a raise.

Pushing seems really wrong given the suspicious limp from the button and the fact that I am not risking all my chips to increase my stack like 12%

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with pushing here is that your risk reward is way too high. The stacks still have plenty of room here for a standard raise which will accomplish the same thing. 10XBB or 7X(blinds+antes) is about the correct size to start pushing when raising.

My guess is that BB was tight for a reason. He has plenty of money and can afford your steals. He sees you overbetting BTF too often so he tightens up and waits for you to give your stack away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well not really (I was just moved to the table recently...previous table was hating my donkish laggy ways though).

But you're right, its a risk/reward issue plain and simple. I guess I shouldve just completed because I would have to raise enough out of the SB to make sure I didnt get into any tricky oop flop situations.

I should add that I had a bit of an $/hr. consideration in this push as well...I was feeling a bit sick and tired and wanted to hit the hay...so I took some risks that I guess shouldnt be normally taken.

[lotus776]

why would you risk your entire stack on a push? you've got a very playable stack compared to the blindsm raise 2 or X BB and fold to RR

[nath]

Geez, it's not THAT bad of a push. It's probably not necessary; a raise to 6k might accomplish the same thing, but if button is a tricky player, he might re-raise you. I think the 6k will accomplish your goal though.
A push will almost certainly win the hand... it's just that it obliterates you the times BB wakes up with something or button inexplicably has a better hand and calls.

[schwza]

i think pushing here is fine. i used to be very susp. of button limps, but now i think it's often just some misc. mediocre hand. completing is fine too.

everybody saying "you have 16x" or whatever - you have to remember the antes, which means that your stack is effectively much shorter (at least from my perspective, b/c i'm used to playing on party.)

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
i think pushing here is fine. i used to be very susp. of button limps, but now i think it's often just some misc. mediocre hand. completing is fine too.

everybody saying "you have 16x" or whatever - you have to remember the antes, which means that your stack is effectively much shorter (at least from my perspective, b/c i'm used to playing on party.)

[/ QUOTE ]

TY, this is what I was thinking...but, it was BB who woke up with JJ...I really wasnt worried about the button limp at all...in fact, it is was caused me to push in the first place...If it were folded to me in sb, I make standard raise and fold to BB's push...the extra 1600 made it worth the risk in my mind at the time. (I saw this as a 90% FE situation so maybe I inflated it a bit too much)

[schwza]

90% is way too high. i don't have a great sense of turning 10% into a range, but i bet BB is calling you well more than 10%, not to mention button.

edit: turns out 88+, A9+, KQ is 10% of hands. he's probably not calling with much more than that (and maybe not with KQ/A9), but button is also in the hand.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
90% is way too high. i don't have a great sense of turning 10% into a range, but i bet BB is calling you well more than 10%, not to mention button.

[/ QUOTE ]

I pulled that out of my a$$, but Ill have to go see what that translates into figuring button's limp and BB's calling range...you're probably right but I dont think risk/reward/EV wise this push is awful...but definitely borders on "highly unnecessary"

[schwza]

but if you are winning with no SD 90% it's hugely profitable.

very rough estimate:

assume 900 in antes, then 5700 in pot including your complete.

if you get called, say you're 33% to win. you push for 26k, the first 5700 is at even money, for the last 20k you lose 33% equity, for -6.5k.

completing gives you ~1/3 equity in a 5700 pot, or about 2k, so the -6.5k should include the missed opportunity to complete, so pushing and getting called is -8.5k.

8.5k ~= 1.5 times 5.7k that you win, so you need to win the pot uncontested 60% of your pushes.

that's very rough and could have major errors as well, but i'm trying to practice estimating it quickly.