Counter-Intuitive Tournament Plays

[Chimera]

Overall, I enjoyed this article. I'm somewhat fascinated by the idea that it is sometimes correct to fold in a tournament even though you know you have the best of it. I think this is one of the main things that makes tournament poker so much different from "normal" cash game poker.

Anyway, while I agree with the general point that you're trying to make, I think that there's a problem with the example that you use. This hand was actually discussed at some length a while back on the WPT forum, and the general consensus seemed to be that folding the TT was correct. I disagreed then, and I still do.

The problem is that you say that Carlos would push there with an "unknown range of hands". In fact, I believe that his actions clearly demonstrate that he would push with any 2 cards. Here's why:

When he pushes with the A5, he's doing so with absolutely no expectation of getting called by a worse hand. He's only pushing because he expects his opponent to almost always fold - he knows that if he gets called, he'll be a big underdog.

In other words, his decision to move in is based completely on fold equity. Therefore, what cards he's holding becomes irrelevant, since his opponent would be just as likely to fold if Carlos moved in with 72, etc.

Therefore, if Carlos's true range of hands consists of any 2 cards, then the TT would be a 3-to-1 favorite. Substituting these numbers into the equation from the article, we get:

.75(753,000) + .25(250,000) = 627,250 for calling vs. 606,000 for folding

Seems like a pretty clear call, especially since calling also increases your chances of winning that cool WPT chip set. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[trojanrabbit]

You are right if Carlos goes in with any two. But I don't think he is. Looking at it from a game theoretic optimal perspective, it is right for Carlos to push on any two and for the BB to call on AA-99. This is assuming that Carlos’s only options are to push or fold, which is questionable with 16BB stacks. However, this assumes that the BB will do the right thing and only call on those hands. If Carlos thinks that his opponent’s calling range might be a lot bigger than that, then it no longer becomes profitable to push any two.

In fact, if Carlos suspects that his opponent will call with a bigger range, then he really doesn’t lose much EV by playing it safe and stop pushing with trash. Additionally, the mathematical model does not reflect differences in skill. I’m sure Carlos felt he was more skilled than his opponent and could probably find bigger edges in future hands if he was dealt trash in this hand. Because the model does not reflect skill differences, it is right for Carlos to be more conservative than the model dictates. After all, stealing the blinds doesn’t improve Carlos’s EV by that much, but losing an all-in really hurts. Why risk the gamble?

I’ll be talking about this more in future articles. I’ll touch on it a little bit in my November article, but I’m writing a lot more on it for my article for the March issue.

Tysen

[Chimera]

You make some interesting points (especially the one about bigger edges on future hands, which I hadn't really considered). However, I still don't think they explain why Carlos would push with A5, unless he was planning to push with any two. In fact, if he felt the BB would (incorrectly) call with hands like AK, AQ, etc., it would actually be better to move in with a trash hand like 72, since he would be more likely to have live cards if he gets called.

He would have to put his opponent on a huge calling range to believe that he would ever get called by a hand that was an underdog (or even a coin flip) vs. A5. Based on the TV hands, the BB seemed to be playing fairly tight (he laid down TT earlier), so I doubt Carlos put him on that wide of a range. However, this is all really speculation, since there are so many hands that weren't shown. Perhaps Carlos had seen him make some loose calls earlier in the tournament.

In any event, I look forward to reading your future articles. I'm primarily a cash game player, but I've recently started playing a few SNGs, and I find these short-handed risk/reward scenarios to be one of the most unique and challenging aspects of tournament poker.