#1
|
|||
|
|||
overpair + flush draw lay down?
anyone lay this down?
PokerStars Game #3134017160: Tournament #15499703, Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2005/11/23 - 02:01:12 (ET) Table '15499703 1' Seat #9 is the button Seat 1: spygosh (1280 in chips) Seat 2: Fernz (1490 in chips) Seat 3: huskies151 (1230 in chips) Seat 4: rt777 (1630 in chips) Seat 5: xqueensfullx (2460 in chips) Seat 6: Spawned (1390 in chips) Seat 7: JiggyUP (1470 in chips) Seat 8: IBNuts (1470 in chips) Seat 9: JMLBLL (1080 in chips) spygosh: posts small blind 10 Fernz: posts big blind 20 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to JiggyUP [Ah As] huskies151: folds rt777: folds xqueensfullx: folds Spawned: calls 20 JiggyUP: raises 60 to 80 IBNuts: folds JMLBLL: folds spygosh: folds Fernz: folds Spawned: calls 60 *** FLOP *** [6d 9h Qh] Spawned: checks JiggyUP: bets 200 Spawned: calls 200 *** TURN *** [6d 9h Qh] [Th] Spawned: bets 1110 and is all-in JiggyUP: calls 1110 |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: overpair + flush draw lay down?
By my math, there's 1700 in the pot, and it costs 1100 to call. That's about 3:2, so you need a 40% chance to win to call. Discounting the slim possibility of a royal flush, I see seven outs at worst and 16 at best (9 hearts, two aces, five for two pair). That's not enoguh to call, but that's assuming you're behind. You could definitely be ahead of something like AQ/KQ/QJ with one heart, the chances of which are easily the 20% or so you need to make the call. I keep trying to justify folding here, but unless I know this guy is tight, I'm calling, but not all that happy about it.
|
|
|