% for set over set?

Hey guys, i wa sjust wonderin how often a set over set happens and if there is any reason to ever fold a bottom set on a ragged board ?

i was playin a live game yesterday (.5/1$ blinds) and bought in for 10$. i turned it into 350-400 within a few hours and slowly dwindled bac tdown to like 150 - but then i hit a set of 4s and lost to set of 9s. do i just lose and say 'it was meant to be' or reanalyze and think of how i could fold? folding = -ev?

[elus2]

you would need to give more information such as stack sizes, player reads, your own play in the last few rounds, board texture, etc.

never fold , -ev

[yvesaint]

the only time i could consider folding a set against an unknown is if i'm 3-bet pre-flop holding JJ and the board comes AKKQJ

[ThaHero]

The odds of flopping a set are about 8-1. My math absolutely sucks, but I will take a wild guess and say that the odds of two people flopping one is 20-1? My math may be(and probably is) flawed. Even if it's close, it's so rare that you should never fold a set on a ragged board. If you have some read, suck as a player ONLY raising aces and kings preflop, and he raises and the board come AK6 giving you a set of 6s and he raises your bet, yeah fold. But it better be a really good read.

Just like Harrington said "I'm not good enough to fold Kings preflop, and neither are you." You should use that same train of thinking about sets. Except be cautious on coordinated boards.

[Mercman572]

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The odds of flopping a set are about 8-1. My math absolutely sucks, but I will take a wild guess and say that the odds of two people flopping one is 20-1?

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i am not sure but the percentage chance of flopping a set is .12, so since 2 sets are independent events .12*.12= .0144 or a 1.4 percentage chance. or 71-1 but my process might be wrong

[Isura]

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[ QUOTE ]
The odds of flopping a set are about 8-1. My math absolutely sucks, but I will take a wild guess and say that the odds of two people flopping one is 20-1?

[/ QUOTE ]

i am not sure but the percentage chance of flopping a set is .12, so since 2 sets are independent events .12*.12= .0144 or a 1.4 percentage chance. or 71-1 but my process might be wrong

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1.4% is a much better approximation than 5%.

[ThaHero]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The odds of flopping a set are about 8-1. My math absolutely sucks, but I will take a wild guess and say that the odds of two people flopping one is 20-1?

[/ QUOTE ]

i am not sure but the percentage chance of flopping a set is .12, so since 2 sets are independent events .12*.12= .0144 or a 1.4 percentage chance. or 71-1 but my process might be wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

1.4% is a much better approximation than 5%.

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At first I multiplied 8 by 8 to get 64-1, but that seemed too high. 20-1 seemed too low. I shoulda just kept my mouth shut.

[Skuzzy]

not so easy as others said - think about the chance that another player has a pair to start too. how many players in the game?

Also the chance of flopping a set v set situation negates a paired board. This means that the commonly used 12% or 8.5:1 figures are inaccurate as they are for a set or better. The chance of flopping exactly a set is 10.775%

set over set

first you have to calculate the odds someone else has a pair as well as you--then the odds that person makes a set with you--then the odds you go broke (ie non coordinated boards) it's not that high. I've only been in one such situation in months. (although that was in a situation that my opponent played really weird for three aces... lol)

But I usually fold small pairs against people who I know won't pay a set off unless they have me beat so... lol.

I'd spend a lot more time reanalyzing why you went from 300-400 to 150 as THAT's the problem here way more so then the set.