When to let go?

[Grease]

OK, Playing last night, I had two seperate instances where I had very strong river hands and value bet against one or two opponents. One time a scare card came, one time it didn't. Both times the opponents are fairly LP and I have yet to see any check/raising done by anyone at the table (other than myself, of course) I can't seem to get away from these hands, but should I want to? Do I want to make these laydowns, or is paying off the definite correct move here? Thanks guys, I hope to get some good responses. Where do you draw the line between paying off due to pot size and going with your read/gut feeling?

Hand 1:

I have AA in MP.

One limper to me, I raise, one cold-caller, limper calls.

Flop 356r

Check to me, I bet, both call.

Turn 9 completing rainbow

Check to me, I bet, cold caller folds, limper calls.

River J

Check, bet, raise, I...?

Limper was pretty LP, haven't seen him make a move yet, but I hadn't ruled out the possibility entirely.

Hand 2

I have KJo in MP. Two limpers to me, I limp, 2 more limp, SB limps, BB checks.

Flop Q109 two diamonds (I have K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])

Check to me, I bet, one caller, button raises, folds to me, I make it 3, caller calls, button caps, I call.

Turn: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet, both call.

River: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet, one folder, button raises, I...?

Is this pure mathematics, or do great players have something else helping them here? I'll post some comments later, I don't want to give anything away.

[sy_or_bust]

Hand 1 is a pretty easy call. The ragged board encourages a hand like KJ to raise top pair. If he has a set, so be it.

Hand 2 is a fold. Your hand is very strong, but the only hands you beat on the river are busted straight draws, and loose passive players don't make this bluff. Sure the pot is very large, but if you have a solid read (I mean AF<.5 or similar) there isn't much to fear. I should add that value betting the river isn't very good here, based on the past action. I'd be willing to check/call. A Bet/call plan is too loose.

As to where to draw the line on paying off, it's just reading hands and players. It doesn't matter if you are getting impeccable odds, theoretically, when you know you are beat. If you don't "know", then it is wise to convert your confidence level (this must be related to villain's range of hands and bluffing capacity) into some kind of percentage and calculate pot odds.

[Nick C]

Hand 1: I can't really put Villain on a hand here. I suppose he could've already had a straight on the turn, or maybe he has J9 or J6s or JJ or something.

Or perhaps he just caught top pair and that's it.

I would call, expecting to lose. I'd expect to lose because Villain is loose-passive and checkraised the river (and not because I can confidently put him on a hand that beats me).

To be honest, even if I was certain the call was -EV (which I'm not), this is one of those spots where I might call anyway, just because I want to know what Villain has.

Hand 2: Well, your passive opponent already obviously loved his hand, prior to the river. A pair plus a flush draw (maybe with a straight draw to go with it) seems like a likely holding once you get raised on the river. Or maybe he has something like A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Anyway, though, I would call, hoping to see a set or two pair or a worse (or equal) straight instead.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I should add that value betting the river isn't very good here, based on the past action. I'd be willing to check/call. A Bet/call plan is too loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I like the river bet.

I'm worried about the caller in between me and the Button, but I think I have Button beat (well, up until the point when he raises).

[sy_or_bust]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I should add that value betting the river isn't very good here, based on the past action. I'd be willing to check/call. A Bet/call plan is too loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I like the river bet.

I'm worried about the caller in between me and the Button, but I think I have Button beat (well, up until the point when he raises).

[/ QUOTE ]

If you like a river bet, then you must fold to this raise. A substantial chunk of villain's hand range now beats you, his raise represents this, and he's loose passive. I consider bet/calling in these situations a leak. What's your reasoning?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
What's your reasoning?

[/ QUOTE ]

In general, I don't think passive players play draws as aggressively as Button played the flop in this hand. Prior to the river raise, I put him on something more like a set/two pair/J8, with the idea that he got worried when Hero didn't slow down to his flop cap.

[sy_or_bust]

Many don't play them so aggressively, I agree. But the river bet/call is still an issue. One of these players will have made a flush at least 40-50% of the time, IMO. This crushes your value bet because you'll be raised every single time you are behind, and possibly some times you tie or win. If you can't fold to that raise, I don't think you have a value bet.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
One of these players will have made a flush at least 40-50% of the time, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you're right. I'm not sure. The caller could just have an OESD, though, or a pair and a gutshot, or even just an overcard and a gutshot (I'm not sure how loose he is -- but unless he's very loose preflop, which suggests he would be postflop too, there aren't all that many flush draws available).

It is true that the loose-passive Button could have been raising a huge draw on the flop, but that's not my first thought.

[ QUOTE ]
This crushes your value bet because you'll be raised every single time you are behind, and possibly some times you tie or win. If you can't fold to that raise, I don't think you have a value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, okay. If it was the caller who woke up with a raise, though, I'd be more pessimistic than I am when the Button does. (I'm certainly not happy about Button's raise, though.) If the caller folded (or, better yet, called again), I'd be thinking "Yes!" and would be anticipating winning a big pot. Then when the Button raised I'd be thinking, "Oh, crud." But I think I would call.

[sweetjazz]

I think these are both easy calls, even though you'll probably lose both hands. In the first hand Jx is possible, though he probably hit two pair or was slowplaying a flopped straight.

In the second hand, you might be losing to a flush here, but button might have KJ or J8. That would explain his aggressive play on the flop, and he might raise the river figuring you probably had a set (and so he was waiting to see if the board paired). Again, it's more likely than not that you're beat, but you'll be good often enough to call. He could be playing QT this way for all I know. (BTW, if villain is very passive, I think his most likely hand is Jd8d, as that is the only hand that merits the aggression on both the flop and river from such a passive player.)

Besides, even if you knew the opponent so well that you could deduce that calling was -EV, I still don't think calling is that bad. You keep a bad player happy, and so less likely to change to his strategy. If you fold too often on the river, passive players might decide to bluff or raise more often, and you don't want that. They'd be playing better poker if they did that.

In neither of these cases can you be near 100% certain that you are beat. Make the crying call and recognize that calling these rivers is *not* a significant leak.