Do you believe the shuffle is really random online???

[ThePimpulator]

How many 15/30 and 30/60 hands do you have in your poker tracker database right now Ralphie?

[jacknine]

It´s easy to set up an algorithm with multiple random variables. So even though the RNG is not a 100% random, there is still no way to predict what cards will come. Tha´s random enough for me!

[Soh]

I only read a few replies, but here's my question.

Are those people who keep bad beating you winning players (check the PokerTracker)?

If they're playing extremely bad but winning, it COULD mean something is fishy.

Soh

[Soh]

If the players who're giving you a lot of bad beats are LOSING, then you can be pretty sure that they don't know more than you know about what the next card will be.

Soh

[Zetack]

[ QUOTE ]
I have been playing online poker for several years now. After starting out a loser I began to make money decent money for about three years. I studied the books from Two Plus Two esp. Hold Em for Advanced Players and Theory of Poker. I discovered Pokerstat and then more recently Pokertracker and used them to monitor and improve my play. My bankroll grew and I wound up playing 15/30 and 30/60 everyday on a well known poker site, making a six figure income.

However in January of this year the "party" stopped. I found that the games which I once dominated seemed almost unbeatable. Luckily I had been loading all my hand histories into Pokertracker so I was able to confirm that I was still playing about the same way I had while I was winning. It seemed that at the higher limits there were a few players who were able to play as if they knew what cards were coming. They would draw to the worst hands at times, but ONLY when they were going to hit. I began to watch carefully and record as many hand histories as I could. In the end the only logical conclusion I could come up with is that some players have discovered a way to predict or control the cards that will be dealt. Someone suggested that a player may have been able to see my cards by using some type of spyware program. Although this is entirely possible, I do not believe it to be the case in my situation. If they could ONLY see my cards why call against my aces, kings ect all the way, without any pot odds, to hit a running straight, running flush or two pair on the river, yet play a tight game the rest of the time.

Just to be totally clear, I am not talking about the times when someone tries to make a bluff, but then proceeds to get lucky by catching cards. I fully understand the semi bluff and it implications in middle to high limit play. What I am talking about is people who play well 90% of the time, but at times make the worst calls only to hit thier hands perfectly. You would expect someone who draws to just a running straight or flush in a small pot to be chasing cards all the time. But these players ONLY do it when they hit.

Also it seems that if they call the turn they will win the pot about 95% of the time. I am assuming the other 5% is just for show, or with hands that would just look too suspicious to support if they found out you folded. For example if you flopped the 2nd nut flush and folded to a player who had flopped the nut flush it would be too obivious that something was wrong.



[/ QUOTE ]

Is it possible that some people have found a way to cheat? Of course.

Is it likely? I think much more likely is that your observations are worthless (no offense). For your observations to be valid you need a rigorous observation protocol with a statistically interesting number of incidents.

So, identify the specific players you think know what's coming and observe then over a long period of time. Record every single instance in which they call the turn. Record the outcome. How often do they fold on the river, how often do they turn over a reasonable hand, how often do they lose, how often have they been drawing with an unreasonable hand to hit a miracle. Then come back to us with a report...

Occam's razor my friend.

Also, just out of curiousity, what happened in march, april, and so far in May? Did they lose their predictive powers? You only mention the losing in January and February?

Also, do you have any explanation as to why they call the turn so much with hands they know are going to hit miracle winners on the river? And you imply they know when they have the 2nd best flush but call down anyway to keep it from appearing suspicious, do you have an explanation for why they don't just fold pre-flop on those hands?

I'm perfectly willing to entertain your ideas, but not on th basis of these specious observations.

--Zetack

[RedManPlus]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm perfectly willing to entertain your ideas, but not on the basis of these specious observations.


[/ QUOTE ]

A reasonable response.

But I would make this "observation".

Our highly regulated securities markets...
Are rotten to the core.

As an example...
At least 90% of the stocks...
Listed on the Vancouver Stock Exchange...
Are outright frauds...
Pumped and dumped through boiler rooms.

The Indisputable 2+2 Party Line...
Is that poker sites are run by a bunch of saints.

Amador Pastrana...
Is the founder of iGlobalMedia...
Which controls Party Poker...
After changing it's name to Party Gaming.

Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha.

This Man Would Never Cheat You

Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha.

rm+

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Gamealot]

I haven't been able to wade through all of the responses here, but most of them seem to be a poker vein...

Here's one from a software engineering and perhaps general suggestion perspective.

First, I take your opening statements at face value. Assumptions are you are a very good poker player since you are (err have been) making six figures at it. And you have noticed irregular play coming from some players.

Your post isn't really titled properly - a better title would be (based on reading your post) "Can someone hack the code and know what cards are about to be played?".

The answer is yes (in many cases) and you stated in a later response that you knew of instances where in fact that has occured. Also many people have pointed out that there is so much money going on in online poker right now that spending the time and energy to do this is worthwhile if you are so inclined.

Suggestions:
1. Find out if the software/site you are using transmits the turn and river cards before the flop betting is complete. This is a yes/no question although if it is yes you will get a whole of words thrown around with it like "encryption" and "x bit key" and so forth. Ignore all that and concentrate on the yes or no part. If it's yes someone can crack it or siphon off it and don't let anyone tell you different [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] If the answer is yes this is an obvious design flaw/security risk.

2. Play at other sites (including ftf) and/or play at lower limits and/or avoid the players you are tracking. Does your game pick back up to your previous winning ways (from a % standpoint obviously you will take a gross revenue hit if you are at lower levels but that is not the point here), or are you as some posters have suggested - in a bad rut?

3. Turn over your documentation to the site. As posters have pointed out here, they are making a lot of money and don't need to cheat - and they sure don't want cheaters ruining that! If there is something to your data they will join the hunt. If not maybe they can point out where your observation are flawed. If you are making all that money on one site then they must consider you a valued and loyal customer and they should at least give you some credence. You have played how many high stakes hands with them in the last 12 months? It's not like you are some random Joe off the street playing at the nickel table.

4. I think you should trust your gut. You are playing at the highest stakes table on a very popular site. If someone has a crack then that is where they will eventually end up if they follow the pattern of most criminal minds. Doing the things above will help confirm your suspicions. If your suspicions are confirmed start playing at a variety of sites and settle in where your game or table level plays at it's normal return (i.e. no cracks are present).

5. It doesn't matter (to you) who is doing the cheating if the cheating is occuring. Any software can be cracked if it is transmitting the turn and/or river card data before the flop betting ends. Period. The reason is obvious - if it is transmitted before the flop betting ends, that means the data came into your PC before you actually see it and the client application (the software you run to play the game) has it somewhere and is waiting for the right moment to reveal it to you. And that means some smart software type can hack into it or siphon it off as it gets translated off the data wire. It probably isn't being done with the site's knowledge, and if they find out about it they will probably vigorously pursue it if there is anything at all to your data and observations.

[CORed]

Ralphie, I am a regular player at Pary 15/30, which is where I believe you have been playing. I have cashed out over $30,000 since the beginning of the year. The last few weeks I have had poor results: a lot of ups and downs and an overall downward trend. I do not believe this is due to anything like what you have suggested. However, I have noticed that in the last few months, the Party 15/30 has gotten much tougher than it was a year ago. A lot of the loose agressive fish who used to make the game so profitable have either quit playing or learned to play better. Although my bad sessions have featured some bad beats, I have noticed that I am much more frequently being beaten by hands that were either better from the start or by very strong draws. In short, I'm getting beaten more and more frequently by players who are as good as, or better than I am. I'm finding that I have to be much more careful in selecting tables, and having to switch tables as the ones I am playing at become unprofitable. I can no longer just pick the first table I find with open seats and count on the fish coming to me. The fish are a lot scarcer now, and I have to look for them.

Although I have no doubt that some of your losses have featured players getting lucky with silly draws, I think selective memory is operating here. Those hands are memorable. The hands where you had AQ against AK, or an overpair against a set are less so, as are tha hands where you bet top pair on the flop and your one or two opponents fold, an increasingly common scenario. Not getting paid off on my bread and butter hands is probably costing me a lot more than the suckouts. The game is getting tougher. We will have to adust, or find a better game if we want to continue making money.

In my opinion, the real reason that you are no longer winning is most likely that your opponents are, on average, much better players than they were a few months ago.

[Zetack]

[ QUOTE ]

Amador Pastrana...
Is the founder of iGlobalMedia...
Which controls Party Poker...
After changing it's name to Party Gaming.

Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha.

This Man Would Never Cheat You



[/ QUOTE ]

I can't find any evidence that this is true (that he's the founder). Aside from a handful of assertions on internet chat forums.

Can you point me in the direction of anything that supports this assertion?

This is a serious question, I'm interested.

--Zetack

[Hoi Polloi]

Didn't think so.