A Hand

[QTip]

Limpers were very poor. Blinds are tight. sb is 17/10/2.5

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero ?

If you call here, what are you thinking about for the future of the hand?

[W. Deranged]

This is not a pleasant situation.

Basically, a taggish 17/10/2.5 is not check-raising this flop and checking the turn. If he is, we want to bet again anyway. So calling here we basically know we're probably getting bet into on the turn. So if we're calling here it's for one of these reasons:

1. Because we think we have odds to improve on the turn and can fold unimproved.

2. We're committed to going to showdown.

Against a better K we have like 2.6 outs discounted or something. Against a flush we're drawing dead. 92 is not a possibility. Against a set we're drawing near dead.

So we have like no outs against any real hand.

So if we continue to the turn, it must be because:

2. We're committed to going to showdown.

This basically means we think that this is a bluff (almost certainly a semi-bluff with a big [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) often enough to continue on. A good villain like that is simply never calling out of the SB here with a weaker K. If he has a K I think we're beat like 95% of the time.

If villain had a big enough [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (like the A) I would actually expect him to bet often and try to trap the bad players for value on his nut draw. He might check-raise sometimes for outs cleaning but check-raising is hardly obvious, and, in my opinion, the less likely play for a tag with a good [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draw.

So basically, I don't like committing to showdown either.


So, as uncomfortable as it makes me, I really kind of think the best play on this flop is to fold.

[paperboyNC]

There is a high probability the SB has a pair + a flush draw, perhaps with the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

I'd call, fold to an A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the turn, but go to showdown to a blank.

How about 3-bet and fold to a cap or if you're bet into on the turn? I'm not quite sure what such a tight agressive opponant is calling with that only has one heart that isn't slowplayed AA, but I think if he doesn't want you to have a free card you're already beat.

Pretty much, i think you're either far behind or not folding the draw. If you're way behind, you pay 1 SB for the knowledge, and if you still have a chance you only play 1 SB to see the river.

btw, this is theoretical if we want to continue. I fold.

With the SB's stats I really don't think that we are beating too much on the flop here. Basically we are only ahead of a semi-bluff, a weaker K (ulikely) and a total bluff.

I would fold this flop, in this situation.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
So, as uncomfortable as it makes me, I really kind of think the best play on this flop is to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

WD:

I was just speaking with another 2+2er on this hand. He suggested the same.

However, I should have included this in the post. The player here I know. He does very funny over-agro things at times. Is this one? I don't know.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
However, I should have included this in the post. The player here I know. He does very funny over-agro things at times. Is this one? I don't know.

[/ QUOTE ]

It wasn't me, but if I was feeling kinda loopy (which I usually am), I'd check/raise your bet with something like 5x5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. And of course I'd fire again on the turn if you just called the c/r.

So you basically have to weigh the possibility that he's doing this vs. what kind of odds you're getting to call down vs. how often you're going to be outdrawn anyway when deciding whether or not to continue. I tend to think that folding is the correct play here.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So, as uncomfortable as it makes me, I really kind of think the best play on this flop is to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

WD:

I was just speaking with another 2+2er on this hand. He suggested the same.

However, I should have included this in the post. The player here I know. He does very funny over-agro things at times. Is this one? I don't know.

[/ QUOTE ]

My basic point is that if I'm going any further with the hand I want a very good reason to. We're not getting great odds to call down (I think it's like 4 to 1 or something) and we're giving reverse implied odds. We are rarely far ahead when ahead, and are totally crushed when behind.

A quick calculation:

Let's say on average our equity when ahead is like 60%. When behind it's like 5%. Let's say we need 20% equity to call down.

So we have:

.6x + (1-x).05 &gt; .2
.55x &gt; .15
x &gt; 28% or whatever...

I think to comfortable we need to say we're ahead about a third of the time to call down here... Whether we are or not I'll leave up to your judgment of the player.

[damaniac]

The stats make him look TAGish, which may lead to the possibly erroneous inference that he knows a thing or two about poker. And if so, I'd be surprised to see him c/r a made flush/flush draw given his relative position. A highly vulnerable but good (another K, no [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?) seems more likely. However, I don't see him playing many worse Kings, or doing this with a bare 9 very often. So I still like folding...flop or turn I guess, I dunno.

[QTip]

I call planning on raising the turn.

The turn is the J of spades.