folding the 2nd nut straight on the flop 5-10 6max

[ShortySaurus]

I have Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on button. Utg raises to 40, I call, BB calls. UTG has both of us covered. BB and I have around 1200

Flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

bb checks, Utg bets 75, Hero raises to 225, BB check raises to 500 total. Utg calls, hero folds.

What do you think?

[Allinlife]

your hand is too good too often to make this lay correct sir.

[SNOWBALL138]

there are 3x4=12 AQ combos

there are 9 JT, KT, and KJ combos, making 27 total.
There are 3 JJ, TT, and KK combos, making 9 total.
So, there are 36 good situations, and 12 bad ones.

of course, you are facing 2 opponents, so this analysis doesn't give you the whole story. Keep in mind though that your hand doesn't need to be good a majority of the time for your call to be right. Probably 40 percent is fine.

Your overlay comes from the times that both of your opponents hold 2 pair or a set.

You should post this in the probability forum because I don't know how to figure it.

[Gregg777]

[ QUOTE ]
there are 3x4=12 AQ combos
there are 9 JT, KT, and KJ combos, making 27 total.
There are 3 JJ, TT, and KK combos, making 9 total.
So, there are 36 good situations, and 12 bad ones.


[/ QUOTE ]

There are other "good situations" as well.

No reads on opponents?

If it is on Party, and neither player is a nit, and if you can easily afford it, call.

[fisherman112]

you ignored 2 other hands which could be in the mix

A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

i dont think this is so automatic, even if you're ahead with the nut straight against a set of tens and the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] gutshot royal flush draw, your equity is only 33%. (AKdd is the 37% favorite with TT in the mix, but a 54-46 underdog heads up against Q9)
if its Q9 against TT and 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], you're again 33% to win and this time a .33% underdog to the set.

if utg has any idea what he's doing, he doesnt have 2 pair. he probably has a set, but he could have the straight and simply be hoping for a safe turn to get his money in, so he can price out the draws. the bb's hand range is wider and this is more player dependant, but it's a small raise and it seems more likely that a big draw would just move in, so im inclined to think he's got a straight.

it's definitely a gambling call and i think an argument can be made for either pushing or folding, but i think when you take into account the tilt factor of getting stacked when you're drawing dead on the flop, im folding without a read on one of the player being reckless.

[ShortySaurus]

no reads except both players have not gotten out of line from what i've seen.