20+2 fold AK on bubble?

[acIdREIGN462]

I have to fold this right?


NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Level:8 Blinds(200/400)

Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: Pseudobluff ( $1370 )
Seat 8: ezhik ( $2760 )
Seat 9: jassad1 ( $2990 )
Seat 10: GRIMREAPA36 ( $880 )

Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to jassad1 [ Kc Ah ]
GRIMREAPA36 folds.
Pseudobluff folds.
ezhik is all-In [2560]
jassad1: ugh
Your time bank will become active in less than 20 seconds. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
pseudobluff: call [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
jassad1 folds.
ezhik does not show cards.
ezhik wins 3160 chips
jassad1: good push


AcidReign

[schwza]

ewww.... i think you have to fold. i haven't icm'ed it, but i bet you have to be ~70% to win to call here.

[The4Aces]

I call.

[downtown]

[ QUOTE ]
jassad1: good push


[/ QUOTE ]

I think I fold, but I *definitely* don't say "good push"!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Ever!)

[psyduck]

am I missing something? this seems like the easiest fold ever, even if you know villain is pushing any two.

JJ is where it becomes interesting

[vinyard]

[ QUOTE ]
JJ is where it becomes interesting

[/ QUOTE ]

AK is a clear lay down. I only call here with JJ+ and I am starting to think the JJ might be leaky.

[LotsOfOuts69]

Maybe I'm wrong here, but I think I would call this. Basically semi-read dependant, (I would fold if this guy laid down the last 10 hands on the bubble or something.)

However, I'm playing to win the tourny, and if you call here, you will be ahead 85% of the time, coin flipping 13% and killed 2%. If you win, you have half the chips in play, plus the chance to exploit the 2nd largest stack while the 800 stack fights for 2nd.

If you lose, fire up another one.

I know someones gonna come along with some ICM calculation that says I'm wrong, but if you are folding AK here I want you at my table on my left cause I'm gonna push any two on you every time.

--LoO

[lastchance]

You have him outchipped! This matters a lot! But you have to survive blinds if you call, and Villain's not pushing any 2 here (even though against an opponent that understands ICM, it is clearly correct).

Man, tough, tough decision.

You fold AK here because it is ICM correct. Losing an automatic 20% for third place means you need to be a heavy favorite (over 60% to call), and even AK doesn't get that. Meh.

[Shillx]

You can call here though it is close. I feel like both folding and calling are about equal unless the villian is pretty tight. If you had T2760 instead of T2990, then you should be auto mucking this one. Likewise if both of the short stacks had T880, you should fold here too. Deviations in the chip counts increase playability in these spots, and as long as you have a few more chips then the pusher, you can afford to make thinner calls.

Brad

[LotsOfOuts69]

[ QUOTE ]
You fold AK here because it is ICM correct. Losing an automatic 20% for third place means you need to be a heavy favorite (over 60% to call), and even AK doesn't get that. Meh.


[/ QUOTE ]

How is AK not going to be a 60% favorite against the SB pushing range. When did we all become such pussies that we are folding AK like this.

This is why I make money playing SnG's. By pushing any two from the SB in this exact situation everytime.

If everyone is gonna fold AK here why would I not push every time?