15-30 Hand: Turn and River Play

[Jeffage]

Let me know what you think of the turn play. What would you do on the river?

Thanks,
Jeff

I have 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the SB. One limper, I raise, BB calls and limper calls (limped in EP).

Flop comes J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I bet, BB calls, limper calls. Turn comes the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I bet(?), BB raises and limper calls cold. I have low outs now so I call. Anyone 3-bet? River comes the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Ugly card. I check, BB bets, limper folds. Easy fold or call in case he raised with a big draw or whatever on 4th?

Thanks,
Jeff

[KidPokerX]

probably a pretty easy laydown imo

[Buzz]

Jeff - You're out of position!!!

I think you overplayed your aces after the flop.

Then you don't have a bet on the turn. (You're out of position). But you do have a call. I think your play on the turn is to check/call.

And then you have a fold on the river.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Jeffage]

Now this is where I'm having trouble with my Omaha game. Why do I check the turn? I have Aces which may or may not be good for the high and I have a nut low as backup. Is betting and getting raised that bad? Also, many free cards could beat me if I'm ahead for the high.

I'm not saying you're wrong...I'm sure I'm using bad logic here since I'm new to this game. So just curious why I would check the turn here into just a couple opponents so I don't cost myself next time (and when I end up in an 80-160 half and half AGAIN this weekend - seems this might be a permanent change).

Jeff

[pipes]

[ QUOTE ]
Now this is where I'm having trouble with my Omaha game. Why do I check the turn? I have Aces which may or may not be good for the high and I have a nut low as backup. Is betting and getting raised that bad? Also, many free cards could beat me if I'm ahead for the high.

I'm not saying you're wrong...I'm sure I'm using bad logic here since I'm new to this game. So just curious why I would check the turn here into just a couple opponents so I don't cost myself next time (and when I end up in an 80-160 half and half AGAIN this weekend - seems this might be a permanent change).

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

JMO, but I think the advice given to you in this thread is very weak tight. I think the flop and turn bets are automatic.

On the Turn your hand may still be best for high and if not you still have many outs like another A or a 5. You also have an uncounterfeitable low draw. I would not see any reason to 3 bet the Turn though.

On the river, you are getting great odds to call. But I also think you are beaten at least 90% of the time. So calling/ Not calling the river is probably close to a neutral EV decision. But you can beat 2 pair w/o a queen or a busted draw bluff.

Was this game, the 2 way game at the Taj?

[Jeffage]

Very interesting advice...I lean on the aggressive side at Hold Em (my normal game where I play mid and high limits). So "backing it up a bit" at Omaha8 is a tough adjustment for me. My gut tells me to keep leading this hand and payoff the river, but I want to make sure my hold em tendencies aren't costing me money in this instance. So more input is always appreciated.

This particular hand was on Party. I'm practicing on Party lately b/c I sometimes play in an 80-160 Hold Em game at Borgata which lately has gone to half-and-half b/c a couple huge donators want it. Now, this game doesn't play like the tightish online games. It is loose and aggressive. And, since I really have no say on whether this goes to mixed, I'd like to be able to compete, not miss bets and not get outplayed. So any and all advice would be very much appreciated...I know this Omaha8 game is hugely beatable, but I also know my split game has holes.

Jeff

[bodie]

"On the Turn your hand may still be best for high and if not you still have many outs like another A or a 5."

Another Ace gives him trips, but also enables a straight.
A 5 gives him 1/2 the pot, most likely.

[pipes]

[ QUOTE ]
"On the Turn your hand may still be best for high and if not you still have many outs like another A or a 5."

Another Ace gives him trips, but also enables a straight.
A 5 gives him 1/2 the pot, most likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Regarding the A as a possible out, I should have clarified the fact that it may not be a clean out. But it is a shorthanded pot, the nuts are not always out.

A non heart 5 would most likely give our hero 3/4 or possible a scoop. Only by luck would someone be holding 47.

You are definitely calling the turn, why not bet? Checking/calling just seems real weak. It would be a real bad result if someone holding something A4TT that would have folded got a free card and spiked a T on the river.

[Buzz]

Jeff - Are you giving your opponents any credit for knowing something about the game? If you are, do you think your opponents are going to fold to your bet on the turn? Sure, anything is possible in an Omaha-8 game, but do you really think one of your opponents here will fold to your bet on the turn?

If not, then your bet really has nothing to do with the money that is already in the pot. You’re not protecting anything by betting. You’re not increasing your chance to win the pot by betting.

I don’t know if that principle is clear to you or not. But at any rate, let’s temporarily forget about the money that is already in the pot or the money you’ll earn on the next betting round if the river card is favorable to you.

Just think about the money that’s going into the pot on this betting round. Your opponents will together put two dollars into the pot for every dollar you put into the pot.

If I’m counting correctly, 23 river cards probably get you no part of this pot. Because of the pot size already, you might be pot committed, and you might win, but you’re more likely to lose your last bet than win it if any of the 23 bricks come on the river. There are 21 cards you’d like to see on the river, but most of them are only good for the low half of the pot. There are only five cards that give you much of a chance for high.

But some of the time when you win for low, the pair of aces will eke out a win for high - so let’s give your hand much the benefit of the doubt and say 7 of your 21 good cards will scoop for you while the other 14 will win half. (Unless your opponents are idiots or gambling fools they hold cards that have a reasonable chance to win for high, low, or both).

In that case, of the fresh money going into the pot on this betting round only,
• 7/44 you win two bets
• 14/44 you win one half bet
• 23/44 you lose one bet

If you add it together, you’ll see that you stand to lose more than you stand to gain by initiating fresh money into the pot.

It would be different if your hand had a better chance of scooping. But it doesn’t. Hard to say how much it doesn’t, because we don’t know exactly what cards your opponents hold. But unless your opponents are idiots or gambling fools they hold cards that have a better chance to win than random cards.

We can’t run a simulation to see where you stand because we don’t know what cards your opponents hold and it’s unlikely they hold random cards. We rely on general experience and past performance of these particular opponents. You know how these particular opponents behave better than I do, but I know, in general, when I have two decent opponents in a pot with me, they’re not holding garbage. In other words, even if you do get a favorable card for low on the river, you very well might get tied for low - and, in addition, those two aces of yours are probably not going to win the high for you.

That’s just my opinion.

Buzz

[pipes]

[ QUOTE ]
Jeff - Are you giving your opponents any credit for knowing something about the game? If you are, do you think your opponents are going to fold to your bet on the turn? Sure, anything is possible in an Omaha-8 game, but do you really think one of your opponents here will fold to your bet on the turn?

If not, then your bet really has nothing to do with the money that is already in the pot. You’re not protecting anything by betting. You’re not increasing your chance to win the pot by betting.


[/ QUOTE ]

So noone ever calls a bet on the Flop and not the Turn? I can think of many weak hands on this flop that would do this. There are many hands that could beat you with a free card but would fold on the Turn. How about a flop call by the limper with A4JK?

Unless you plan on check/folding the Turn you must bet it, IMO.