Bellagio ME hand #3

[locutus2002]

I'd call and play for set value.
I think a fold is better than a push.

Here's why I don't like a push.

Hero has no ability to fold out the following hands: 88++,Ak,AQ. Roughly 70 hands, 3 opponents, or 210 instances that hero gets called and shown one of these hands. If villain's ranges are about 300-400 hands then you are getting called 45%-55% [1-(70/300)^3 ]of the time by one player if you only consider these hands.

When you get called by these hands your EV is ~12K (-17K EV from your original 29K).
In the best case you fold out all the other hands and win 12K for a net loss of -5K EV.

In the worst case villain calls you down with many hands that have substantial equity against 77 such as JK, etc.

I doubt any of the big stacks are going to feel too squeezed by the push, and more than one call could be likely.

The more hands that we have beat that will call us, the higher our EV goes up so if you include hands like KJ,KQ etc... our equity is going to better then -17K for when we get called. Only with the range of 88+,AK,AQ is it negative EV. Most of those hands aren't calling hands but I hear they're tricky so its hard to say how often they will have those hands. And if there stacks are soo big whats to stop them from calling this w/ 66,55,44. I'm not sure what our equity is with FE and hand ranges but I think its definitely right around the 50/50 maybe a little higher or lower. But I'd rather take a 50/50 gamble at 30K then to sit around and get my money in with AA at 15K or 20K.

[Nomar]

I thought about it for a couple seconds, this was the first time Hacehm limped in, and decided 88-JJ or AA were possible but not too likely, then with Groehing and Mads with lots of chips, 30k was nothing to there stacks, so in my mind, even if Hachem and Goerhing folded, there was zero percent chance Mads was going to fold with anyhand. During the day he had made some very marginal calls for more chips then this.

Gavin Smith had told me once, that it is soo important to stay in these tournaments, and not blowing urself out.

I thought I was getting called 100% of the time, either by Hachem's overpair or whatever 2 cards Mads has. I know there is an overlay, and I have most likely have the best hand, but I wanted to see a flop and play poker.

The flop came down QJ2 checked around, turn K, checked around, river J checked around, BB wins it with K3, and Hachem makes some comment that they all had an ace in there hand...77 came in second place...

[PFrese]

I still think this is an easy push. K3 would have folded to your all in.

[tpir90036]

[ QUOTE ]
Gavin Smith had told me once, that it is soo important to stay in these tournaments, and not blowing urself out.....I know there is an overlay, and I have most likely have the best hand

[/ QUOTE ]
I do not know Gavin Smith so I don't want to put words in his mouth.... but I can't imagine this situation is what he was talking about. Giving up early or self-destructing and putting in your money bad is one thing. Picking up much needed chips in a spot where you have a considerable overlay is quite a different beast.