Seneca Niagara Satellite

[prk]

I was at Seneca today and they have $25 satellites to the Alleghany Class which is a $225 buyin. Winner get's a seat.

I am on the button. T800 and blinds go up every 10min. Blinds start out at 25/25.

3 mipers ahead of me and i look down to 44. I limp in, and the SB makes in 400 to go.

Everyone ahead of me folds, and I think for a minute and raise all-in.

The SB cringes and calls and flips over K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Turn 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

River K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]


I have played these satellites before and the standard pre-flop raise is to 75 or 100. I got the sense that this was a steal and my goal was to actually try to be super aggressive and accumulate some chips early.


How was the play???

[KenProspero]

In my humble opinion.

4-4 against a heavy bet is, at best, a coin flip. Given the above average raise, you may well be looking at a higher pair, which kills you. All other things being equal, I'd fold in this case.

However, you thought you had a read on the player, and you played based on your read. Though I'm not personally not there yet, the ability to read your opponent is what makes a great player great.

In this case, however, most of the time, even if you read your opponent correctly, it's still down to a coin flip. i.e., 5-6s is about 50-50 against you, so I'm not sure how helpful it is long term to bet here even if you think it's a bluff.