q10s, river flush meets giant c/r

wdeadwyler · #1 12-05-2005, 04:02 PM

If my hand is good enough to call this river, is it good enough to push.

Villain is 73/10/1.23 and 24 wtsd after 50 hands. He appears very loose and quite aggresive. His range includes any sort of flush or maybe air? Probably a flush.

Fold? Call? Push?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero ($65.85)
Button ($45)
SB ($60.40)
BB ($79.40)
UTG ($45)
MP ($169.03)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($2.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $2.5, BB folds, UTG folds, MP calls $2.50.

Turn: ($7.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

River: ($7.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $4, MP raises to $30, Hero ??

4_2_it · #2 12-05-2005, 04:06 PM

I'm pushing here. Your river bet looks like a weak steal attempt. If he has an overflush, then he takes my stack. The straight also hit so it's hard to put him on the nuts here.

stu-unger · #3 12-05-2005, 10:28 PM

i push. i think that someone who raises that much raises Axs most times, and i can just see so many smaller flushes playing this way along w/ whatever else a donk might have here and still call...

ajmargarine · #4 12-06-2005, 12:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that all the sensible TAG's are in MSNL, we are left with all the high variance maniac's down here in SSNL. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I still think a call is correct here. Pot is a boring $7.25 when the river card is dealt. I hit my hand and get $30 more out of villian, I am happy with that. I don't have the nuts, I don't have the second nuts. There's a nice chance Hero loses this hand. No sense in shelling out an extra $30 when you don't have too.

Let me ask all the maniac pushers this question: If, instead of c/r'ing, Villian led into Hero for $30 on the river, how many of you would advocate pushing then? Most of you would probably be folding in that spot. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Reef · #5 12-06-2005, 01:01 AM

push and hope he doesn't show a better hand. I expect to win ~ 4/5 of the time. He could show a str8, some weird 2 pr, set, or baby flush.

ajmargarine · #6 12-05-2005, 04:25 PM

That's a tough spot, because to villian it doesn't look like you have a flush. After all, who bet's that flop with a flush draw? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] (nice play there btw) I'm not pushing this. I error on the side of caution. If he can c/r a better flush on the river, he can have $30 from me there; but, I don't see any reason to give him another free $30 on top of that.

kurto · #7 12-05-2005, 05:16 PM

It might help to know how he got his stack that high. Stealing a lot or showing down good hands.

A lot of aggressive players make huge stacks bluffing or who are willing to put all their money in with a low flush and are up against people who will call them with 2 pair, a straight, etc.

Is he bluffing at every scare card?

Also... regarding the overbet he's making; is this standard for him? Presumeably he's done this before and there's been some showdowns... how strong was his hand?

I'm certainly not folding my hand to a guy that loose. The question is do I reraise. And to answer that, I want to know the answers to my questions above.

#8 12-05-2005, 05:41 PM

If he's got nothing or two pair or something less than a straight, will he call your push on the river? Tough spot if you don't know where you stand (and if you're beat and you push; you're set to lose a lot of money)

#9 12-05-2005, 06:01 PM

I'm inclined to push because of his stats

kurto · #10 12-05-2005, 06:06 PM

"If he's got nothing or two pair or something less than a straight, will he call your push on the river?"

I suspect I could answer that question if I'd been sitting at the table for awhile. I'm willing to bet if he's willing to make this overbet with something like a straight or a really weak flush, he's not going to fold to the allin (which would be nothing more, at this point, then a minraise)

Do you think the villain is going to raise it $30 then fold for $30 more?