In defence of polling

[britspin]

One of the consistent themes of this, and many other groups, is a marked dislike of polling. You often see comments like "follows the polls" about certain politicians, "I don't trust polls" or, approvingly "he's not the sort of person who follows the polls".

Of course, some of this is part of our search for realness and grit in our leaders, but I just want to point out, that behind every politician who "never listens to the polls" is an adviser combing through every fine point of polling data they can find.

Thats because polling is an essential part of politics, like Nielsen Market share is for TV networks, or consumer panel data is for big businesses.

Politicians are fundamentally salesmen- selling themselves, their party, their ideas to a public- and polls allow politicians to sell better- by finding out who's interested in their message, who needs to be convinced, what might help bring people on side.

A politician who doesn't read polls would be like an online player who didn't use pokertracker and then claimed this made them a more "real" poker player. It's laughable.

Of course, there are good ways and bad way to using polling data. The crudest way to address this would be to take ten popular positions, no matter how ideologically, fiscally or practically incoherent and tie them together- hoping to bring people who support those positions under their banner.

This would be a bad development, if it weren't for the fact that bad politicians have always done this, with or without polling.

A good politician uses polling, not to shape the nature of their beliefs, but to shape the way in which they communicate, package, explain and progress their agenda. They can choose what to empasise and when, what parts of their own beliefs the public doesn't wish to see enacted or doesn't understand - and if they are smart enough - how to change those perceptions.

So remember, next time you here someone saying they don't read the polls, their either a liar, a bad politician or they hire someone to read the polls for them. No successful politician could, or should, do anything else.

That's all fine, but those who use polls as support for their political arguments are in general idiots. And 73% of Americans would agree.

[Matty]

[ QUOTE ]
One of the consistent themes of this, and many other groups, is a marked dislike of polling. You often see comments like "follows the polls" about certain politicians, "I don't trust polls" or, approvingly "he's not the sort of person who follows the polls".

[/ QUOTE ]No, that's a consistent theme of loud idiots who denounce and try to ignore anything they don't fully understand; or who assume anyone who posts a poll is posting it as an election prediction.

Bush's team has spent an record amount of money on survey groups for a reason. And while he probably doesn't follow anything, his political advisors watch polls like hawks and they are not stupid.

The trick is you have to look at the polls in-depth. You can't just look at two numbers and think you know what the poll is telling you.

sorry if some of that is redundant to what you posted. I just read the first paragraph. =]