Let's talk about river bets

cold_cash · #1 04-13-2005, 12:54 PM

BB seems loose and passive, though I don't have a real solid read.

Does that make this river a value bet or shall I try to induce a bluff?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Button calls, Hero raises, BB calls, Button calls.

Flop: (6 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, Button folds.

Turn: (4 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (6 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero...?

GrunchCan · #2 04-13-2005, 12:56 PM

Bet. Passive opponents can't be induced very effectively.

Talex · #3 04-13-2005, 01:03 PM

What calls here when you bet that you have beat? Weak aces? Anything else? I don't think there's much betting here either, so I think this is pretty much a wash, though I'd lean towards checking.

-Tim

toss · #4 04-13-2005, 01:06 PM

Seeing how passive players are more likely to call a bet, I think you should bet.

MrEngenic · #5 04-13-2005, 01:14 PM

Against some players I would valuebet this, but typically I would check. It's not about if you are ahead most of the time, you may very well be, it's about if you are ahead will you be called. When you are behind you will loose 2 bets to a raise, and if you are ahead you will gain perhaps as little as 0.5 bets since he may fold half the time. There is no way a worse hand would fold so you have no fold equity.
If you check and you are ahead he may bet maybe one third of the time making it almost as profitable. If you are behind you will loose one bet.
What it comes down to is really how good your opponent is. If he is reasonably good or likes to bluff, don't bet, if he sucks bigtime bet.

toss · #6 04-13-2005, 01:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if he sucks bigtime or like to bluff, bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You got it the other way around.

gvibes · #7 04-13-2005, 01:18 PM

I bet this every time against a loose passive.

cold_cash · #8 04-13-2005, 01:37 PM

I'm not going to call a raise, if that makes any difference.

Also, I said he seems loose and passive, but I've only seen him for a couple orbits. In other words I guess he's pretty much an unknown.

jba · #9 04-13-2005, 01:59 PM

bet the river bro, I think this guy is playing that one party skin, I forget what it's called. you know the one i'm talking about, the one with no bet, fold, or raise buttons. Just one big huge button that says

 CALL 

(bet the river)

Talex · #10 04-13-2005, 02:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to call a raise, if that makes any difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes me pretty certain in my initial statement. I contend you never fold a hand that you're losing to with a bet on the end. I think you're called and or raised by better hands more than you're called by hands you beat, and I don't think it's all that close. If I'm wrong somebody help me out, what's calling here that makes up for the times that hero invests an extra bet and loses, or the times hero is bluffed off the best hand from a nearly unknown opponent? Moreover, hero has to be bluffed a lot less times than induce a bluff in order to make check-call the better line.

-Tim