Great Knockout-- Did I have Any Choice?

[oaktoon]

well again not to beat a dead horse but I'm not at all convinced that the initial bet was a mistake.

I agree that with AK suited and more chips, BB should have pushed me.

But he didnt-- now the short stack call must be a pair or he's doing something insane like going all in on AQ or AJ suited. My call is a coin flip and with more than half of his bet already committed, I ain't folding. But why push? I've gone back and forth on this one. By not pushing I do preserve my ability to play in the tournament beyond this hand if the a or k dont hit in nearly every likely situation save the one that actually happened. By pushing I may be able to back down a bigger stack if he's playing something less than AK. But the all-in bet itself should have done that, if it was even possible given his stack size. What more good am i doing besides increasing the odds I get knocked out??

The flip is that if my read on big stack was correct, and he was also playing an ace-- very likely AK-- then the one situation that did arise-- two flush scare cards-- should have caused me to consider backing away. But that pot committed and with him needing a draw on the turn and river?

So again the hand was pretty much inevitable any way you slice it. If I made a mistake it was the initial bet-- not poushing-- though obviously in this case it wouldn't have changed anything.

[MLG]

you reduce your odds of beating a small PP from 50% to 30% when you dont ensure that you see the turn and the river. you lose a lot of equity by doing that, especially since there are very very few hands that will call you raise but not your all-in that help your equity.

[ThrillFactor]

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But he didnt-- now the short stack call must be a pair or he's doing something insane like going all in on AQ or AJ suited. My call is a coin flip and with more than half of his bet already committed, I ain't folding.

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Sure



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But why push? I've gone back and forth on this one. By not pushing I do preserve my ability to play in the tournament beyond this hand if the a or k dont hit...

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No you don't. You're talking about check-folding a missed flop with what could very likely be the best hand and leaving yourself with slightly <3BB (t1700) only to take the BB on the following hand. I'm sorry, but that doesn't leave the best posters on this forum the ability to play on. You're delusional (sp?) if you think it does that for you.

Then, to further the point. In the heat of battle, you don't even check-fold the miss... you call anyway (correctly btw, tho your reasoning would argue otherwise).

If you move in over SB's push, you give the big stack an opportunity to make a bad fold. Maybe in a moment of insanity, he'll see the two pushes and decide to cut his losses at t2000. Unlikely, but it's got to be a better option than your line.




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By pushing I may be able to back down a bigger stack if he's playing something less than AK.

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If you do, that's fine you can play for his 2000. If you don't, isn't that a good thing?



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What more good am i doing besides increasing the odds I get knocked out??

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Again, in this example, there is no way that you can play poker if you check-fold the flop. Sure, maybe you'll be dealt a big hand in the blinds that holds up, but I'll take my chances here.



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So again the hand was pretty much inevitable any way you slice it... though obviously in this case it wouldn't have changed anything.

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This much is correct. You were going bust on this hand no matter what. But as Gavin already pointed out, it is still important to play the hand correctly for the times that it does make a difference.

[ACW]

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I can still get out of that hand after the flop. I couldn't if I opened with a push.


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Except, as you found out, you probably can't. Certainly you didn't in this case.

[Lurshy]

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But why push? I've gone back and forth on this one. By not pushing I do preserve my ability to play in the tournament beyond this hand

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But you didn't preserve your ability to play in the tourney after this hand. Your argument only makes sense if you are weak/smart enough to let go of the hand after the call and all-in after your initial action. If you are going to call off your money and marry the hand regardless, you may as well have just pushed to begin with.

A push, would maximize your folding equity, and isolation chances. It would also insure you are getting maximum suckout opportunity in case you are called by a pocket pair. When the blinds are more than 10% of your stack, it is ok to take it down PF if thats what happens. Putting in 1/3 of your stack leaves you with little manuvering room, and just about pot commits you.

Your subsequent call of the all-in was even worse for the same reasons. Again the preserving chips argument doesn't hold up if you will just call them off in the hand.

You say your read on the big stack is correct, but you are calling off all of your chips for at best a split pot, at worst a lose. Something is not correct with this picture.

And I am not advocating a fold, I am just saying that based on your arguments, you should have folded.

JMHO

[oaktoon]

you are right about the blinds. Half my stack is going away in the next two hands.

[oaktoon]

Thanks, everyone.

One more wrinkle.

My read of the big stack-- he called my original bet, and didn't push-- was that he was playing an ace from the get go.

My read of the small blind was that he was playing a pair.

Does the fact that the big stack now takes an ace out of play (and a king, too, as it turned out), which obviously lessens my chance at a straight win over the pair while increasing the chance of a chop, make a fold after the SB push the proper action? I still have 65% of my chips-- more than enough to compete with. If we both have aces-- and if God forbid, we both have AK, our odds of beating QQ have just dropped by one-third-- from 45% or so individually down to less than a third. And with the chop possibility-- which I must allow for at least 50% of the time-- my winnings have been cut down to 1900-- bet 3500 to make 7400???

Perhaps my original bet was a mistake. But now I'm wondering if once I made it the proper move was to get out of the hand.

[Lurshy]

Yes, and I said as much in my post. The only reason to not push, is if you are able to get away from the hand. If you are not able to get away, just push.

Knowing some of your outs are gone, and that you are likely behind in a coin flip, and at best playing for a split pot, makes a PF fold of AKo against a cold caller and an all-in reraise close to absolutely correct.

[TheDrone]

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My read of the small blind was that he was playing a pair.

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Maybe this is a nitpick, but I don't see how you can put SB precisely on a pair when he is shortstacked and you have no prior experience playing with him.