Opinions on this satellite bubble push

[Brad F.]

First you say this:
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On both tables, the action was tight and I stole his blinds repeatedly. He also caught me on a continuation-bet bluff around 50 hands before. blinds 150/300 with 50 ante. I have seen him call down with 2nd and 3rd pair, particularly against me.

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And then you say this:
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I check into him. In my experience, he will continuation bet here 100% of the time (whether he hits the flop or not). He usually folds to a re-raise. He bets about 1,500.


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Those two make no sense. You think that he will call down with 2nd or 3rd best pair but he will fold to reraises??

I fold A-9 preflop here. Your only hope at a tight table like this is that he has K-Q, 77 or 88. Otherwise you are in bad shape.

Since you called, and with the hands you put him on you have to get your money in. I don't agree with the 'any two face cards' comment. I don't expect to see K-J or Q-J here if he is as tight (or loose??) as you say he is. I think it's about 50-50 really on the flop whether you are ahead or not without looking at a poker calculator. But a push is definitely better than a check/call.

The fact that there are two stacks lower than you here and five spots get paid argues even more for a fold preflop. Just too marginal of a play here in a satellite.

Brad

[danger_mouse]

Yeah, that's kind of what I thought afterward. Problem was, this was my first satellite tourney and I hadn't really wrapped my mind around the strategic differences from it and regular MTTs. It worked out in the end, but I don't love my play here.

[Roman]

Fold preflop, there is no need to risk your stack with top pai r here. Just keeps stealing.

[danger_mouse]

Yeah, Brad, I know it seems a bit odd, but that's the way the guy played. If he suspected that you might be continuation betting, he'd call flop, possibly turn bets. However, if he was continuation betting himself, he'd fold to a re-raise. He displayed this behavior several times for each example.

I do, however, agree that my pre-flop call with A9 was suspect.

[Brad F.]

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Yeah, Brad, I know it seems a bit odd, but that's the way the guy played. If he suspected that you might be continuation betting, he'd call flop, possibly turn bets. However, if he was continuation betting himself, he'd fold to a re-raise. He displayed this behavior several times for each example.

I do, however, agree that my pre-flop call with A9 was suspect.

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Ok, your read makes more sense put that way.

Ya, the PF call was marginal at best, but I think you got a flop you were looking for and should be willing to go to the felt with it. You certainly weren't calling with A-9 only to hit an ace right?

Brad

[Erik Blazynski]

I don't have an opinion on the push YET. With the A-9 you need to ask yourself "do I need to play this hand?" There is one player in the pot and he raised, you have about 25 BB left, your 2 away from the money, and out of position. I am not really sure how you would answer this question, but my answer would be NO, I dont need to get involved. Let him take the blinds and be done with it.

But that didn't happen, so lets evaluate the post flop situation.. You flop top pair, top kicker. This is one scenario where acting first is a benefit, You throw out a pot sized bet to figure out where you're at. Instead you check and he throws out a continuation bet of about 1/2 the pot. So what does that mean? Either he has a larger PP than your 9, and he's looking for a call or he has 2 over cards, and he's just hoping you fold. How much do you like that situation? I don't much care for this situation becasue I am blindly calling or raising. Apparently you like it enough to push your stack. I definetly think that your overbet of the pot here is a mistake. You really are looking for information about his hand, you missed your opportunity to get the info first and you've gotten him more committed to the pot, which I don't really think that you want. If you raise the size of the pot you can accomplish the same result and if he does anything but fold you have to be done with the hand.

Well there is my opinion, thanks for asking..

-Erik

[Erik Blazynski]

Are you saying that depending on the flop you then put your oponent on a hand that you can beat, so you go all in?? This is a great rule.... Please tell everyone you know...

-Erik

[danger_mouse]

Erik, better read the link, before you say anything more. ;-)