Backdoor flush in a BIG pot

[lil feller]

Here's the scene:

10/20 B&M game. Heres the cast of characters.
Seat 1: Semi-aggressive but predictable rock. Likes to show big laydowns.
Seat 2: Semi-aggressive, semi-predictable rock. Has a few moves, but uses them so rarely you know where he's at.
Seat 3: Super tight silent by the book ABC player
Seat 4: Just like seat 3
Seat 5: Just like seat 2
Seat 6: Loose pre-flop and predictable calling station, who only rarely bluff
Seat 7: Me
Seat 8: Very loose Pre-flop but S&M ABC postflop
Seat 9: Sort of on tilt gambling it up.

In this hand I'm in the SB with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. The button is in seat 6. Seat 9 limps, so does 1,2,3,4,5 and then the button raises. I look around and don't see any signs of a 3 bet and I call. (???) BB calls as do seats 1,2,3 and then seat 4 re-raises to 3 bets. Its called back to me, and I call. BB caps all call. 9 way for 4sb a piece going to the flop. Should I have found a fold somewhere in here. I got brought along for 1 bet at a time (this was the first time this game was like this, it had been passive pre-flop for hours).

T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check, and its checked to the button who bets. I call, as do 6 other people (only seat 1 mucks).

Turn

J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Obviously at this point I'm committed to seeing the river, but what does everybody thinkg about the flop call. I was searching my mental databases trying to remember the odds of going back door for a flush/straigth and couldn't remember. I figured it couldn't be more than 37:1, so I called. I didn't like not closing the action, and didn't think a c/r would clean up any outs...I needed a flush.

River

T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet out. BB raises. folded to seat 5 who calls. the button folds. I 3 bet, BB folds and seat 5 (cutoff) calls.

Thoughts?

lf

[etizzle]

you have odds to call on the flop if that's your question. Especially with about a 20% chance that your K is good, this is an easy call.

The river looks fine.

[tworooks28]

You are an extremely lucky fish. I would be scared of full boat.

[Yeknom58]

Preflop-once it get's capped I puke a bit in my mouth but I'm not folding.

Flop-Each backdoor draw is worth about 1.5 outs (I think) but the coordination of the board I would say all your backdoor draws and your K outs are probably worth a discounted 1-3 outs. So with this jumbo pot I don't think you can fold on the flop.

Turn-No one if folding a K here on the turn. Calling looks okay.

River-Fire away!!!

[elysium]

hi lil

fold on the pre-flop; fold on the flop. the main reason for folding is that you do not have a draw to the nuts. you also must consider that your call never closes things up. as far as the 3-bet on the river.....well.

oh lil what's the use. you're gambling. just try to lose less than 20 dollars an hour.

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
fold on the pre-flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Aside from the fact that I don't close the action, which I know is a big deal, why should I fold this preflop? It's 9 way pot in a game that is typically very soft and passive. It won't cost me much to draw if I flop. Not trying to be argumentative, but one line sentences of advice don't really help anybody understand your view point.

[ QUOTE ]
fold on the flop. the main reason for folding is that you do not have a draw to the nuts

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, but I have the 2nd nut and this isn't Omaha. I don't think that being 2nd nut makes my draw that much weaker, maybe I'm wrong.

[ QUOTE ]
as far as the 3-bet on the river.....well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the player descriptions and the lack of raising on the turn, not finding a 3 bet here is just silly. The UTG limper raises with any suited diamond, so I know he doesn't have the nut flush. The cutoff grimmaced when I bet out obviously disgusted with the river card (I left that out, sorry). Not 3 betting here is crazy, of all the streets I think this is the most non-debatable.

[ QUOTE ]
oh lil what's the use. you're gambling. just try to lose less than 20 dollars an hour

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I'm not gambling. I play for a living, between online and some scattered live play. I'm trying to maximize my winrate, which is fairly solid, and am using this forum to do so. I contribute to interesting hands, and usually my advice is helpful. Thanks for your thoughts, I do appreciete the input, but trying to comment on why I played the hand the way I did without any meaningful content is just rude.

lf

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
You are an extremely lucky fish. I would be scared of full boat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the well thought out and insightful reply. I had no fear of a full house at all. The BB would raise with a variety of hands here, from a weak Jack to isolate to 3 of a kind, a flush (bigger or smaller), or a full house. If the BB had any 2 pair or set hand he certainly c/r the turn. If he's raising with anything I can't beat, its the nut flush. The cutoff was visibily disgusted with my river bet, he didn't like the river card. He auto 3-bets a house here...I had no doubt my hand was the best.

lf

[andyfox]

"what does everybody thinkg about the flop call."

No brainer call to me.

[lil feller]

Even the first one, this was what I was most unsure about.

[CardSharpCook]

I have two problems with this hand. (1) the call on the flop (2) This is slightly positive EV play PF and on the flop

(1) While I think we all agree that calling a single bet on the flop is a no-brainer - we don't know you'll only be calling a single SB. With nine players at the table, a chk/rz is likely. The odds of a back door flush are about 1:25. The odds of a back door str8 that include an inside card are about 1:55 (not sure about this figure). Thus, if you are forced to call 2 bets, the is a -ev play.

(2) Flushing gives a 6% chance. Tack on another 2.5% for two pair on the flop. 8.5% shot at a good hand. With 16 bets in the pot, calling your odds are actually pretty good... unless a later player 3 bets, but in my experience with hands like this, that is unlikely. So I guess I like this call PF.

[censored]... I guess I like this all the way, but it is just so damn ugly. Like you said, you were dragged into it one bet at a time, and every time it was with slighlty +ev. The good thing is that you get real cash to go with your Sklansky bucks.

Yeah, Let's let that be the moral of the story, sometimes Sklansky bucks are real.

CSC