Do I fold AA on this flop with this action?

jman220 · #1 12-25-2005, 12:18 PM

I'm new to Ultimate Bet, and to this table (only 1 orbit, this is my second time in the BB, and I haven't yet played a hand), so I have no reads, and then this hand comes up:

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (4 handed) converter

SB ($52.25)
Hero ($198)
UTG ($227.50)
Button ($390.85)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $7, Button calls $7, 1 fold, Hero raises to $22, UTG calls $15, Button calls $15.

Flop: ($67) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $67, UTG raises all-in to $205.50 , Button calls $205.50 , Hero????.

My thoughts:
UTG's preflop raise indicates to me that he probably does not hold pocket 4's or 5's, although with no reads this is hard. My thought is that most people do not raise this small a pocket pair utg, I put him on an overpair, 10's or higher, maybe even a strong Ace with two clubs. The problem is Button, he called twice preflop, and called this bet as well pretty quickly, is he a maniac who is calling with a draw? Or does he have the goods enough percentage of the time to justify me folding here? My thought is that, at least half the time he will have made a set or better, however I am getting 5:1 on my money. But He may have a set or better as much as 80 percent of the time here, given the action. AA is one of my leaks.

Edit: The only read I have is that I chose this table because it had a high table pot average, and a high percentage of players seeing the flop.

Edit: Upon further reflection, given that It was a $109 call to win a $500ish pot, I now feel that the correct move here is calling, I have maybe 5 or 6 clean outs even if I am behind. Thoughts?