Push or Fold - 9's

[gergery]

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Doesn't the 12% chance of flopping a set change the EV result to option #3? If you flop a set and check, you could still double-up...

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Ahh, I knew I missed something, because I could have sworn its more correct to flat call with a pair vs. opponents overcards IF you KNOW his hand AND the blinds are big vs. stacksize.

That would make option 3A much more profitable, swinging the results of my analysis from #2 to #3. So, if you somehow saw his cards in the mirror behind him or something, then the best strategy would clearly be to flat call. Because the value of the additional information you get from seeing the flop more than outweighs the value you have from getting his add’l chips in preflop when you are only a slight favorite.

But in practice, you can only put him on overcards, so to fnurts point you are still playing a guessing game as to which ones he has. Net, you will very often make a mistake on the flop, (where a KQ hand is much less likely to do so), and that slightly outweighs the value that the add’l info of seeing the flop gets you (I think).

Note: my analysis is trying to show the correct play IF you know what he has. If you are suggesting that you put in 1/3rd of your stack, and then push only on favorable flops (as opposed to ALL flop, ie. the Stop n go), then I don’t like that option at all, as you will not get good enough flops enough enough to justify it. So the push when only 1 of the A/K/Q cards hits will not work often enough for you.

-- Greg

[DonkeyKong]

I see your point gergery,

<<my analysis is trying to show the correct play IF you know what he has.>>

when you get raised by a bigger stack, unless you have a specific read on their cards... don't we have a decent idea what they have... we doubt they just have a random hand...

they either have a pair or big cards or a single big card with a decent kicker. If you go all-in always after the flop, you aren't using your general read. Yes you are adding some guesswork but it seems to me this is better than not using any info and going all-in 100% of the time.

Why not go all-in less than 100% of the time but still go all-in MOST of the time -- only eliminating X% of the flops that look especially likely to have hit the other player?

I don't know what the right % X is but isn't it >0%. If you have 77 and the flop comes A K Q, this is a more likely than average flop to have hit your opponent given the likely range of hands. Yes, you will fold wrongly if you are against 22-66 but you will save 2/3 of your stack vs all the A K Q hands.
In my view, somewhere north of 0% folds is correct -- but how far away from 0% is optimal?
Just curious why you think you should ALWAYS go all-in. Why not just 'most of the time.' If it is just a random hand you are up against, then clearly the right move is to move in all the time if you have 77...

thx in advance