Non-nut straight+re-draw.

kongo_totte · #1 09-09-2005, 08:41 AM

Just sat down, so no reads.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

MP2 ($142.50)
MP3 ($101)
CO ($99.90)
Button ($106)
Hero ($100)
BB ($120.70)
UTG ($108.70)
UTG+1 ($71.90)
UTG+2 ($115.35)
MP1 ($270.82)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
5 folds, CO calls $1, Button calls $1, Hero (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($4) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets $3.5, BB folds, CO calls $3.50, Button raises to $7, Hero calls $3.50, CO goes all in for $95, Button calls $91.90, Hero.....?

lynars · #2 09-09-2005, 08:47 AM

i would have thrown it away in this spot. J9 is not at all unlikely here. If the showdown between the two villians shows you would have won the pot, just sit tight, couse you are gonna dubble up in a much more comfortable/safer way against the player who win this pot.

jkkkk · #3 09-09-2005, 09:25 AM

I fold, you're either way behind, chopping or not so far infront.

wtfsvi · #4 09-09-2005, 09:41 AM

Damn, that's tough. I think you should fold it, but I can assure you I would not fold it in the heat of the moment.

Button checks behind on the flop, so he has to be completely retarded to not have the straight or a set of 8's. (Thus making the straight way more likely, since it is mathematically and since he would have to be semi-retarded to have a set of 8's.) The call-move in move from the other guy just looks so super strong. I think you are very probably up against one or two J9's here.

djoyce003 · #5 09-09-2005, 09:49 AM

are we sure this is a fold?

Hero is getting immediate 2-1 odds on his call. There is some chance he's ahead, and there is a 4-1 chance he'll improve to the winning hand if he is behind. He could just as easily be up against a set and 4-6 here as j-9. He could be freerolling against someone with 96 as well. Hero only has to ahead a very small amount of the time to make this call ok.

I think its really close actually. Hero is getting 2-1 on a 4-1 shot. So if he's behind he's losing 400 and winning 200 in 4 chances, which means he needs to be ahead only 1 out of 4 times to make this call ok...i'd bump that up to say 1.5 times for the re-draws someone with a set has......say about 1/3 of the time hero needs to be ahead here, not sure he's ahead 1/3 of the time though, but I think its at least likely.

jkkkk · #6 09-09-2005, 10:02 AM

Hero has to call 95 for 210 (roughly), 2.21:1 (31%), I give hero 15-20% >90% of the time. Best case scenarios hes likely chopping or winning if someone misses pairing the board on the river (and he hits his flush draw obviously).

wtfsvi · #7 09-09-2005, 10:29 AM

I didn't see the smaller straight. I think that might tip it into a call.

djoyce003 · #8 09-09-2005, 11:31 AM

at 6max i'd think this is a call...not sure about 10 handed. I think he's ahead more than 15% of the time here. I think he could be up against a set and two pair or a weaker straight quite a bit.

MINETZ · #9 09-09-2005, 12:17 PM

call for sure, you are getting huge odds if your hand is good, i definatley think the fact that u have a redraw makes up for the times you are going to be behind, I think at these stakkes a lot of times u are going to set a set lower straight for 2 pair a fair amount of the time.
Noah

crosse91 · #10 09-09-2005, 12:34 PM

[censored] this is a bad one....
let me preface this by saying that i don't give most 100nl players credit for calling 1 gappers preflop. Given that, even if they did they'd usually be suited which eliminates you being dominated on the straight that same person having a higher flush (you have the 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])

So, your flush outs are good (most likely, unless someone's donking with a pair+flush draw)

that gives us about 25% equity. (correct?)

however, it really seems like someone's woken up with a set here, hell there might be two. so any heart that pairs the board is a loser. However, if they do both have sets then we are about 65% to win (??) I can see button checking his set on drawless board. Then maybe CO woke up with his 88 on the turn or possibly 78. There are just too many ways that you are far ahead here.

So you might be 65% to win. Or you might be 20%. Or you could be against a higher flush draw and a higher straight and you're [censored].

Given this-i call. The odds are about 2.5-3 to one and i'm not sure i lose this often enough to fold.

I still pray however...and hope for the 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the river. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]