maybe interesting steal gone somewhat wrong 5/10

[fimbulwinter]

table is playing real tight and weak. people are checking three streets with flopped FH's and minraising minbets. im basically sitting and waiting for it to get SH. effective stacks 1400.

EMP makes it 25 i think, many callers to me on bb with 86[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], i make it 140, EMP calls everyone else drops.

Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (400ish)

what's the plan?

fim

[LethalRose]

I dont really like the idea of playing an OESD on a 2 flush boards, hurts your outs a lot. AK of spades isnt going anywhere and if you bet out you're most likely going to get raised if EMP has anything close to a hand. You're hand disguised, but if you hit your straight with a 3rd club you're not going to get much action. Also by reraising preflop if you check your opponent will probably put you on a PP smaller than Queens. This is a good thing as he will bet smaller amts and hope to make you call along hoping he has a good hand.


I say bet out, give up on the turn if you dont hit. Fold to a reraise on the flop. If you miss the turn and he bets a small amt (1/4 the pot or so) I call. If you hit the river there is no way he can put you on 86 and you will likely get a nice chunk of his stack and put him on tilt, and make everyone else play more aggressive with their hands. which you can adjust too.

Sometimes when I hit a flop hard I overbet the pot, you could also get wild and do this if you have it in your game, if hes a thinking player he'll either put you on air or the nuts, you said they were playing weak so he may fold.

ultimately the best way to play this hand depends on table dynamics, how you see your opponent and how he sees you. How you've been playing draws, how he plays certain hands, etc..

please critque my thinking I need to learn something, this is all redundant thinking, Im probably not thinking on a high enough level so yea.

[fimbulwinter]

if i pot it and he pushes im getting odds to call with my OESD against pretty much all hands in his range.

also, just to be clear to the impending rush of replies i can feel coming: i feel the preflop play to be +EV in a vacuum. consider playing this flop a long term freeroll.

fim

[LethalRose]

If you'll have odds to draw to the OESD if you pot it and he pushes i think potting it and calling a push is the best option. I forgot about stack sizes.

I like the play even more if you're up against regulars and this play will get you action in the future from them.

Im still getting this move as slightly -EV against these hands.

AA , KK , QQ , JJ , AKs, AQs, AJs, KQs
KJs, QJs, AKo, AQo, AJo, KQo, KJo, QJo

Am I making a mistake?

[Mikey]

bet half the size of the pot.

Meet the other bridge (if he raises) when you get to it.

I would check given that they are minbetting alot I'll be more then happy to get cheap cards here (with the chance emp is slowplaying a legit hand that will pay off if you hit)

A big bet could lead into trouble if called and you hit your stright and the flush comes or board pairs.

A small bet could be usefull if you could put him on a big pp KK-QQ (AA seems dead since he didn't reraise inless you have been stealing alot he may just call.) as I see him just calling with those holding (seeing if the flush hit's the turn) If it doesn't and you hit you should get paid off nicely.

[fimbulwinter]

well, 400 pot, i bet 400, they raise to 1260 total so then it's 860 to play a final pot of ~3K looks like an autocall with 1/3ish equity.


fim

[LethalRose]

[ QUOTE ]
well, 400 pot, i bet 400, they raise to 1260 total so then it's 860 to play a final pot of ~3K looks like an autocall with 1/3ish equity.


fim

[/ QUOTE ]

oh yea, duhhh. Its late...

[TheWorstPlayer]

This is ridiculous. It's better just to push all-in yourself on the flop than to let him do this to you when he could be bluffing with the best hand. In fact, if you ever overbet the flop, I think this is a decent spot to do it.

[kagame]

bet half his stack