Stupid fish (bad beat post) - Page 4

Larimani · #31 08-19-2005, 01:47 PM

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Isn't the aim of poker to take the actions you would take if you were able to see your opponent's cards and to force your opponents to not take similar actions and therefore make "mistakes"? (cf. Theory of Poker, Sklansky)

Therefore, how can you say that I played badly?? I may have had information that you are not exposed to that made me believe I was in front of all villains, and I was right. I played my hand as I would have done if I had seen everyone's cards. My play/read, far from being bad, was perfect.

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Translation: "It turns out that I was right that I had the best hand; therefore, I was right to move all in."

To the extent this is results-oriented thinking, it can be dismissed out of hand as such. To the extent that it represents a philosophy: "get your $ in with the best hand," it is a misapplication of the philosophy. As it turns out, you had a better hand than either fish, but you were an underdog to the combination of their hands. Recognizing this fact, that you were basically an underdog to any two slightly non-random holdings, should have told you that the correct move was to fold, at the latest to the reraise.

I think the fact that hasn't sunk in for you yet is that your AQ was an underdog to the combination of these two hands; therefore, correct application of the fundamental theorem requires a fold.

But you could not see your opponent's cards, all you could see were their bets; and their bets were representing solid hands. Even granting that they are fish, these bets should have told you that they were holding decent cards, such that your AQ was an underdog to the combination of the two hands, and again, the correct action was to fold.

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one word: equity.

#32 08-19-2005, 01:50 PM

The other thing you have to consider is that you were 46% to win this and thus getting the right odds, but that's because you got lucky that they happened to be sharing the 10. If idiot #1 had K-Jo and idiot #2 has 2-2, you're only 36% to win, which is about even. And if idiot #1 has K-Js and idiot #2 has 5-5, you're winning percentage goes down even more. In the actual hand, you happened to make the right play as far as the odds go, but only because they happened to be sharing the 10. It was not a perfect play. Give them any two hands where they're not sharing a card and it's breakeven at best. And there are a lot of hands that it's -EV.

Be honest about this play with yourself. It'll be worth it in the long run. Don't just get defensive b/c some people are berating on this thread. I'm sincerely sorry that they have. Don't get me wrong, it was funny, but they still shouldn't have done it.

Larimani · #33 08-19-2005, 01:54 PM

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Don't just get defensive b/c some people are berating on this thread. I'm sincerely sorry that they have. Don't get me wrong, it was funny, but they still shouldn't have done it.

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Yes, that is a real problem with 2+2ers... it's a bit of a shame.

EDIT: But then again, I knew what I was doing when I posted this "bad beat" post... I've been around long enough to know that I was going to get slated...

sammy_g · #34 08-19-2005, 02:05 PM

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one word: equity.

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Against the hands almost all opponents would play this way, you do not have any equity edge. Even against bad players, you're usually going to see big pairs and hands like AK when all the money goes in preflop.

If you've seen these two guys move in with garbage several times preflop, then maybe you have an edge. But it's really not that great even against random hands. (And you didn't say that in your original post.)

#35 08-19-2005, 02:09 PM

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one word: equity.

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Two words: you're dreaming.

Sorry, couldn't resist being flip back atcha. In all seriousness, there is no way you should have seen this situation as an equity situation. You have been reraised by a fish and another one cold-called.

Again, as it turns out, in this one hand, you may have been getting the right odds. But against two players representing solid hands, long run your play is definitely incorrect.

Look, don't get me wrong, I am all in favor of making reads against fishy players and then backing them (reraised a maniac all in last night with TT b/c I was sure his original play was a steal). But your hand was a serious underdog to any two decent hands. You should have recognized that and folded.

As one of the other posters in this thread noted, your primary equity in this case comes from the fact that they were sharing the ten. NO WAY ANYONE makes that read.

JihadOnTheRiver · #36 08-19-2005, 02:10 PM

This was not a bad beat. This was a poor play on your part. Please don't clutter the forums with this crap.

Larimani · #37 08-19-2005, 02:43 PM

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Please don't clutter the forums with this crap.

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stfu. go kill yourself.

#38 08-19-2005, 02:55 PM

When it comes right down to it, if you did have a great read on your opponents and you knew you had the equity advantage, then it was a great move. I think the problem that most of us are having is that it's very hard to believe that you could read anyone that well. If you find yourself in a situation where 4 people have committed 10BB pre-flop, you have AQo, and you can read them well enough to disregard all the strength they're showing to "know" that AQo is the best hand (on an online table with no physical tells!), you're a lot better at reading players than me.

The only way I could see you being that sure is if these guys had been committing that much money pre-flop every time for at least the last 5+ consecutive hands (so you could legitimately assume they're playing any two). If that's the case, then you left out that important detail in your original post. If not, then I don't see how you could be so sure, no matter how fishy you think they were. Even fish catch a hand once in awhile. If you're sitting at a 6-handed table and are dealt AQo, there is about a 30% chance that at least one of your opponents was dealt a better hand (any pair, AK, AQs). When you have 4 people willing to commit 10BB pre-flop, that percentage jumps astronomically.

BigF · #39 08-19-2005, 02:59 PM

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You didn't even have a 50% chance of winning:

Hand 1: 46.7502 % { AhQs }
Hand 2: 31.3740 % { JcTc }
Hand 3: 21.8758 % { Ts8s }

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And your point is?

Don't get me wrong. I think OP is crap.

BZ_Zorro · #40 08-19-2005, 03:36 PM

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And your point is?

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My point, sir, is that as a bad beat post, this sucks. Here's one with AQ that doesn't suck, so you can see the difference:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

UTG+1 ($28.90)
Hero ($25)
MP1 ($26.25)
MP2 ($39.45)
MP3 ($9.75)
CO ($22.61)
Button ($22.35)
SB ($101.48)
BB ($7.47)
UTG ($8.72)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
2 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1, MP3 calls $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, 2 folds.

Flop: ($4.35) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Button bets $2, Hero calls $2, MP2 calls $2, MP3 folds.

Turn: ($10.35) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, Button bets $4, Hero raises to $9, MP2 folds, Button calls $15.35 (All-In), Hero calls $10.35.

River: ($49.05) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $49.05

Hero has Ah Qd (high card, ace).
Button has 7s 8s (straight, nine high).
Outcome: Button wins $49.05.

This has all the elements of an epic bad beat: a great read, a masterful check/raise, a frustrated push by a frustrated villain, a heroic call, and finally, tragedy on the river. I hope OP is taking note.

If he just wanted to point out how stupid the fish are at Party, this is a much better example:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (10 handed) converter

Hero ($27.85)
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($23.55)
UTG+2 ($25)
MP1 ($26.63)
MP2 ($8.35)
MP3 ($130.68)
CO ($40.21)
Button ($4.20)
SB ($28.30)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, UTG+2 raises to $0.5, MP1 raises to $2, MP2 calls $2, MP3 calls $2, 3 folds, Hero raises to $8.1, UTG calls $8.10, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $7.85, MP1 calls $24.63 (All-In), MP2 calls $6.35 (All-In), MP3 folds, Hero calls $19.50 (All-In), UTG calls $16.65 (All-In), UTG+2 calls $16.65 (All-In).

Flop: ($115.18) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players, 5 all-in)

Turn: ($115.18) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players, 5 all-in)

River: ($115.18) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players, 5 all-in)

Final Pot: $115.18

Results
Hero has Kd Kh (one pair, kings).
UTG has Ks As (one pair, aces).
UTG+2 has Ts Ac (two pair, aces and tens).
MP1 has Jd Js (one pair, jacks).
MP2 has 7h Jc (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins $110.60. Hero wins $4.21.

OP: Please take note.

P.S. If anyone wants to give me sympathy, feel free.