Advice on Moving Beyond 30/60 Online

[hockey1]

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as far as i'm concerned nobody has played NEARLY enough hands to determine their winrate. either you're winning or you're losing.

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On it's face this doesn't make any sense. You sound like you're suggesting there's no meaningful difference between someone who has a winrate of 3.4BB/100 after 29K hands and someone who has a winrate of 0.5BB/100 after 29K hands (a difference of 2.9BB/100); but at the same time that a winrate of 0.5BB/100 is enough to indicate a winning player and -0.5BB/100 (a difference of 1.0 BB/100) is enough to indicate a losing player.

If on the other hand your point is that we can't know precisely whether hero's "real" winrate is 3.4 or 3.2 BB/100 then I think you're just quibbling. Although it's possible to run ridiculously well over 29,000 hands and have a seriously inflated winrate, I don't believe for a second that in the vast majority of cases 50K or so hands isn't enough to get a decent bead (let's say within 0.5BB/100 98+% of the time) on where one stands as a player. [Statisticians among us please correct me if I'm wrong] Unless he's the luckiest SOB on the face of the planet, hero's gotta be doing something very right to be winning 3.4BB/100 over 29K. Maybe he's "really" only a 2.5BB/100 player, but c'mon, are you really suggesting that we just ignore the winrate altogether and say he's no better and no worse than any other winning player?