Help! Ugly play...Party 1/2

[DeathDonkey]

A good player would 3 bet the flop and lead the turn with as little as one pair. If he made a set on the flop I am drawing dead, so what are we looking for on the river exactly? Its very hard to put someone on the set, if I could do that on this flop, I should just go ahead and fold to his 3 bet. Since I called, I must not be convinced he has a set, and therefore my top pair on the turn has a good likelyhood of being good. Now when I am 3 bet on the turn, I cannot like my hand, and maybe I should fold right there? This is the most debateable call in my eyes. But if he has a smaller two pair or something like that, I have odds to call and see the river.

Now that may be the best or worst river card in the deck, but when MP2 wakes up after calling the whole way, that's probably not a good sign. To those who want to 3 bet the river, I submit that is just spraying chips because "I have top two, I raise" and not looking at the context of the hand and how the bets came down.

-DeathDonkey

[ScottC]

I'm new here, but have a fair amount of experience, which isn't to say there's no room for improvement. So these comments are as much seeking feedback on my style as they are suggestions for you to chew on.

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't like the raise. It gains you position, but that is not a sure thing at all with two players behind you. And at 1/2 I figure there will be too many callers for KQs to be a strong pre-flop favorite. I would raise a stronger hand or KQs with NO callers before me and assuming I have a tight table image.

Regardless, pot is $9 at flop, right?

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: (9 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, MP1 3-bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
When MP1 re-raises, I consider folding to a likely set, two pair, or overpair. A 9A is a possibility, and a few players will raise here with an outside straight draw, but unless I've noted this aggressive -- or hyper aggressive, in the case of the draw -- behavior previously, I consider myself a huge dog to 2 pair, and huger dog to the set.

I calc $19 pot to you to put in 1 more $. So, you are getting 19:1. Somebody tell me if runner runner trips, or even two pair, is less than a 19:1 dog.

As for the raise on the flop in the first place, I've found that 1/2 players frequently re-raise the LP flop raise. Whether this is because of ignorance, bravado, or because the LP flop draw raise play is used so frequently, I don't know. But, again IME, the raise does not get the desired free card and actually ends up costing a premium.

Therefore, I only do this raise with the NUT flush draw, or NUT double straight draw with a three suited flop, or straight flush draw. Two overcards with backdoor straight/flush draws is not strong enough, IMO, to raise here.

And back to my standard style... I've called at pre-flop, so pot is likely $6 when I'm faced with calling, but hitting one of my overcards is 15:1 on the turn, 7:1 by the river, so I fold unless I'm very confident that MP1 is bluffing. I don't have the re-raise info that puts MP1 on two pair or set, but the single pair odds are enough to make me fold. In the words of Lou Krieger, "Let some other fool pay to see their cards."

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (10.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, MP1 3-bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
At this point, even if I've played your style not mine, when MP1 bets (and definitely when he re-raises) I have to be convinced he is bluffing to continue. If not I put him on AA, KK, two pair or set. I'm dead to KK, and dead to a 2 outer on any other set, which makes me a 23:1 dog. Pot at this point is $25 (if I'm counting correctly) but to call is $2, giving me 12.5:1 just to call. If he's on two pair or AA, you've got 5 outs, which makes the odds OK, but the chances are just too strong that you're dead or a dog.

And I don't like the raise at all, because there seems to be very little evidence that you are the leading hand at this point.

[ QUOTE ]
River: (22.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls, SB folds, MP1 calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
So you've hit you're runner runner, and maybe are ahead against MP1 if he had two pair, but you can't be sure he doesn't have a set. And I suspect MP2 has TJ for the straight.

All comments welcome.

[Piiop]

I don't like the raise.

You must raise this everytime. KQs is a very strong hand against any number of opponents. If you're not raising this, you're missing out on a LOT of profit.

Therefore, I only do this raise with the NUT flush draw, or NUT double straight draw with a three suited flop, or straight flush draw. Two overcards with backdoor straight/flush draws is not strong enough, IMO, to raise here.

You're playing way too weak tight if you only raise nut draws.

If not I put him on AA, KK, two pair or set

There's absolutely no way he has AA or KK here. These hands shouldn't cross your mind. It is possible he has a set or two pair though.

[ScottC]

Thanks, Piiop. I expected you to say I was playing WT, based on your previous post. I'm going to consider this in my play analysis, but I find it very hard to consider myself a passive player. I am very aggressive when I'm ahead or on a good draw. But I think too many 1/2 players will call with Ax, which is ahead on the flop if I don't hit a Q or K.

What key characteristics do you suggest people watch for as playing too weak?

[ QUOTE ]
There's absolutely no way he has AA or KK here.

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Why?

[Piiop]

Preflop action. Also, two Kings are already gone, making the probability of someone holding 2 kings small.

[DeathDonkey]

Hi Scott,

Thanks for the detailed analysis. Though I disagree with alot of what you said (see piiop's reply) I wanted to pick on something in particular that I already replied to another post with...

If he has a set on the flop, I am drawing to the backdoor straight or flush only. When I hit my King on the turn, I am drawing DEAD to a set. I don't have 2 outs as you said and others have said as well - DEAD

If I put him on a set, I simply must fold sooner, but it is very difficult to accurately put an opponent on a set, as it is much more likely for him to hold one or two pair.

As for this hand, MP2 woke up with the nuts, as he chased with his JTo and we both paid off. MP1 had a set of ducks and I was DEAD on the turn.

Thanks for the comments,
DeathDonkey

[ScottC]

[ QUOTE ]
If he has a set on the flop, I am drawing to the backdoor straight or flush only. When I hit my King on the turn, I am drawing DEAD to a set. I don't have 2 outs as you said and others have said as well - DEAD

[/ QUOTE ]
Too true, as your trips fills his boat. My mistake, but like I said, I'm getting away from that hand regardless.

My "detailed analysis" aside, our main difference seems to be in how we interpret MP1's 3-bet (and MP2 on the river). You say the 3-bet could be "a good player... with as little as one pair."

But I was spot on: "When MP1 re-raises, I consider folding to a likely set, two pair, or overpair." I'll take my first choice for the correct answer, or any of the other choices for the correct action. And on the river, "I suspect MP2 has TJ for the straight". Right again.

In fact, I'll rethink my position on the flop raise, as it is worth it to get re-raised at this cheaper level to find out what you're up against.

1/2 online (PokerStars my experience, Party could be totally different) to me means overcards are crap, longshot draws the same. It is people that play these hands who pad my bankroll, and vice versa.

Bottom line, raise or call pre-flop, I'm not particularly married to either play, but get away from that flop. Convince me otherwise with math. I'm entirely swayable.