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#31
10-11-2005, 12:08 PM
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Re: Hypothetical Question
[ QUOTE ]
you're not taking into acct that you are playing HUMANS, not robots. humans get board. imagine a fish not playing any hands b/c they're worse than KK...eventually boardom will overcome them and either the game will break or they'll start playing worse hands. Barron [/ QUOTE ] But the more interesting theoretical exercise is to assume our opponents would play according to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker and use correct bluffing stratgies etc. and then calculate our EV. 
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#35
10-11-2005, 12:34 PM
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Re: Hypothetical Question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] get BOARD [/ QUOTE ] Eliminating the possibility that the first two misspellings were accidental... [/ QUOTE ] jeez, can'ta guy just imply that the players were getting wood trying to get at the guy with the kings?? Barron
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#36
10-11-2005, 12:37 PM
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Re: Hypothetical Question
I was thinking about $1500, because I figured you'd win the blinds 75% of the time ($50 x 30) and shouldn't do worse than break even when somebody chooses to compete. But that sounded like such a big number, I was afraid to post. Now that I see your estimate, I've decided to go out on the limb right behind you.
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#37
10-11-2005, 12:41 PM
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Re: Hypothetical Question
I came up w/ an answer of $960 / hr. Here's how:
assumption: The only playable hand outside the blinds is AA. PPs are no good as they can only hope for about 5:1 even with perfect implied odds for the set. Ace-high hands are close, but probably don't impact your bottom line much (aside from forcing you to payoff AA more). assumption: BB can only play pocket pairs and ace high. Both are clearly profitable. It's unclear whether or not other good drawing hands like T9s could ever be played. Probably not. estimate: the SB only plays AA. pocket pairs are close and ace-high is almost certainly playable, but I ignored this. assumption: KK will always payoff no matter what the board. This is a huge assumption, but it makes the math easier. This makes the final estimate a lower bound. KK may be able to do much better by always folding ace-high boards. More on that at the end. I also ignored any chance of somebody picking up KK. This will happen less than 1% of hands and costs you less than 1 SB. some math: probability BB has ace: 16% probability somebody has AA ~ 4.4% probability BB has PP which is not AA and not KK 5.4% So we just do an EV calculation... to do this, I looked at the blinds as already paid and out of our stack, then subtracted those payments at the end. That is, if we win the blinds after posting the big blind ourselves, that's handled below as +1.5 SB in EV, with the 1SB being subtracted at the end. 75% of the time we win the blinds for 1.125 SB / hand 4.4% of the time we lose 8SB to AA (super conservative estimate) = -.35 SB / hand 13% of the time the BB draws to an ace and misses = .325 SB / hand 3% of the time the BB draws to an ace and catches, winning 7SB from us (conservative estimate) = -.21 SB / hand 4.8% of the time the BB draws to a pocket pair and misses = .12 BB / hand .6% of the time BB draws to pocket pair and flops a set, winning 9 SB from us (pretty conservative) = -.054 BB / hand Add it all up... 1.125 + .325 + .12 - .35 - .21 - .054 ~= .95 SB / hand That's $1140 / hr, but we have to pay the blinds ($45 * 4), leaving a net profit of $960 / hr, or .4 BB / hand. This is quite a bit lower than the EV of KK when dealt face down, which makes sense. What's the point? A LOT of your EV comes from your opponents not knowing what you hold. I think this is a lower bound on the EV of KK face up every hand. Many assumptions might be tweaked to make the hand more profitable. In particular, ace high flops are super scary given the cards your opponents are playing. Also, anyone entering the pot outside the blinds should set off huge warning bells, probably making it right to fold any ace high flop and maybe even some that aren't. In fact, it's conceivable that you could fold preflop if someone entered the pot on your right! Trying to play this way might make other hands playable / more profitable though, complicating the math. Thanks for reading, Eric
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#39
10-11-2005, 12:44 PM
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Re: Hypothetical Question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] get BOARD [/ QUOTE ] Eliminating the possibility that the first two misspellings were accidental... [/ QUOTE ] jeez, can'ta guy just imply that the players were getting wood trying to get at the guy with the kings?? Barron [/ QUOTE ] To be honest, I think that the misspelling explanation is probably less disturbing than the alternative... ML4L
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#40
10-11-2005, 12:47 PM
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Re: Hypothetical Question
It seems that if you demonstrate that you're always going to call down, you're going to win the blinds an awful lot.
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