Stuff I do that I don't like

[MN_Mime]

You're all over the place with what-if's.

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if someone has an overpair to your 6's? if they merely have a Q?

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I'm with you here. However, look again at the players. This flop action could have started with as little as Ace-high. Neither of the aggressors are likely to have an overpair here. I'd have heard from the first one PF and the second one isn't raising with an underpair to the Q. Both players likely have a queen and I'd be astonished if their kicker hit the flop.

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what happens when you hit your raggedy two pair and lose?

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This is a runner-runner situation. I have to improve on the turn to stay with the action and they have to redraw by pairing the board or their kicker and NOT give me the flush/straight).


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but that when the action goes bet/raise the chances of people holding hands that positively own you increase dramatically.

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Bet/raise, 3 folds to me tells me a queen apiece and I have to find odds to draw to my 7 clean outs.

If I hit a 4 or 6 on the turn, I'm ahead and I'm going to bet my hand for value. They've collectively got 1-2 Qs, 2-6 kickers, and 3 2s to redraw against my two pair. They are probably drawing dead to trips.

If I improve my draw on the turn as I did, my straight outs are good and my other outs remain as valid as before. Had I improved to a four-flush, that's more likely to have paired them and my two-pair outs would be more suspect.

On a more coordinated board this is an easy fold. Maybe this is still a fold and that's why it's a hand I don't much like.

[deception5]

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if someone has an overpair to your 6's? if they merely have a Q? what happens when you hit your raggedy two pair and lose?

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If someone has an overpair to your 6's or a Q, etc then your 2-pair and trip outs are good which was my point. Sure occasionally you'll hit 2-pair and lose, but they don't get much cleaner than this and I'm ok with winning a big pot 10 times and losing 1 time.

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and what kind of bullshit advice is "fearing sets is generally a bad idea" ? yeah... looking for monsters under the bed is always wrong... but while you're busy drawing to YOUR set saying... (and you're not going to believe this)... other people hit them, too! the point isn't that somebody likely has a set right now, and certainly if you hit your 6 you stand a strong chance of winning this pot... but that when the action goes bet/raise the chances of people holding hands that positively own you increase dramatically.

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My point is that your thought shouldn't be "someone probably has a set so I should fold". Sure you need to take the action into account. Of course you need to take your reads on the players into account as well.

In this hand, the initial bettor is likely to have 2 cards, so it's the raise that's important. You are far more likely probabilistically to be against a queen (or even an overpair) than 2-pair or better. This player sees 22% of the flops and never raises preflop so AQ/KQ/AA/KK and likely QJ are all possible. 2 pair is very unlikely (given that villian has some semblance of preflop standards) and while a set is possible there are exactly 7 possibilities (3 QQ, 1 66, and 3 22) which have us crushed. When you consider AA=6, KK=6, AQ=12, KQ=12 before you even get into other possibilities, yeah fearing a set here is pretty bad at this point.

[livinitup0]

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I hate to call these 'leaks', because I think that word is over-used. But sometimes I'm playing and I do something I know I shouldn't, and I cringe right when I do it.

So, just to see if I'm alone, or maybe to get some community support, I'm going to post it. Feel free to flame me, add your own foibles, whatever.

If this is too NC, Greg, let me know.

Misplaced aggression... taking stabs at pots when I really shouldn't.

For instance:

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: (1.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>....

Why I Don't Like This:

It is a VERY draw-heavy flop, and I have bottom pair. I'm not getting out anyone with a bigger pair, or a piece of one of the ends of this. PLUS the pot is microscopic.

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I do this too much too. It just seems like no ones intersted in the pot. David Ross posted in his first year thread that he liked betting into small pots that people seemed "unintersted" in. Every time I see this I think of that post and end up betting the turn.
No...(slaps his hand)

[DavidC]

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Make the tighter one fold his OCs...

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And the loose ones call their OCs, getting incorrect odds...

[DavidC]

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Yeah not too good. Anyone else folding this preflop with only one limnper?

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I am, but after the preflop, what would you do?

[DavidC]

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But on the turn I'm not folding anyone drawing. And unless the people in the pot are aggressive an 8 or 9 probably isn't betting. So I can't take the flop check-through as 'nobody hit'. It means 'nobody aggressive hit'.

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QT (if the board is 987) has 8+6 outs to bet you: 14, therefore 2.21:1 odds. You'll be offering 2.5:1 odds. Giving a free card to this hand is not a good thing, if you can safely avoid it!

Some factors that add danger to the hand:

1) Will they bluff a busted draw on the river (this turn bet is a last-money-in bet)?

2) Will they fold a better hand than yours?

3) Will they check through the flop with top pair or better?

4) What are your chances of improving, assuming they call you with a better hand?

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FWIW I think check-folding here isn't too bad, nor is betting... it might be okay, even marginally +EV, but I've never put numbers to the above factors, so I could be wrong. I'll continue to read the post... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DavidC]

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It was the coordinated board, honestly. If it were 47Q rainbow, and I had the 7 and it checked through the first round I could see betting, because it has a better chance of taking the pot right there.

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If it were 47Q rainbow I would bet the flop.

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Nit!

[DavidC]

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If it were 47Q rainbow I would bet the flop.

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Yeah, a K-J high flop is kinda funky, because it gives hands like AT "3" outs against your 88. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DavidC]

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Oh, I'm familiar with that affect. It's the main cause of comments like 'Party is rigged', etc. I know that the brain likes to play tricks on you, and I do take steps to try to soak it in alcohol before I rush to generalizations.

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fyp