Not Raising AA2 rainbow OTB

[GooperMC]

I don't want to start another "value of a naked AA" debate but I had what I thought was a novel idea a couple days back and wanted to run it by everyone to see if it holds water.

I was thinking that NOT raising AA2 rainbow OTB would be correct. The problem that I am seeing with raising AA2 OTB is that it isn't going to drive out anyone and it is going to build the pot for your opponents to draw at. If you keep the pot small you may be able to push out medium draws on the flop and sometimes even better hands (weak 2 pairs).

The goal of raising AA2 pre-flop is that with every person that folds you gain PE. This PE boost will grow faster then the size of the pot is people call so you want to be driving people out. I think the same can be said for flop play. Most of the time you want to be driving out medium drawing hands because they are sucking more equity from you
then they are building the pot.

I can give some examples if this wasn't clear.

Am I over thinking this (which I have been known to do) or am I on to something?

[toots]

Ms. "weak tight" here.

I'm not going to raise AA2 rainbow OTB, because its rainbowness seriously compromises its scoop potential. Unless we're lucky enough to see the board pair twos (for instance), or wonder of wonders, one of the two remaining aces hits, I don't see where you've got much of a chance at the high pot.

At this rate, you're just playing for the nut low with no backup, and the only thing you've got going is that the worst you could anticipate if your nut low hits is that you split it with two other people instead of three.

In other words, I see AA2 rainbow as being a little bit better than A2xx rainbow as far as catching half the pot goes, but I'm not sure that it's gonna win enough of the pot often enough to warrant an OTB raise.

[HajiShirazu]

There are some reasons not to raise I guess, but AA2xr still just about has to be getting a lot more of the pot on average than what most poor-playing online opponents are coming in with. You can still make aces up + nut low, or take it down with a high set/boat and no low comes, wheel, bluff out somebody with two bad pair on a scary low card board with the nut low, 3/4 an A2, etc... An overpair + nut low draw is a hand that you should play pretty aggressively in the right situations IMO. But for me the best reason to raise, in fact this is almost always the reason I raise in O8 in the first place, is that you might be able to fold the people behind you (in this case the blinds) and get some dead money in the pot. Even if the BB is the type that always calls, at least you didn't let the SB come in for half price. Any four can win and sometimes the blinds will get half a pot from you with a hand that they would have or should have folded.

[Ironman]

There is another consideration that I have been thinking about for just this situation.

When you are on the button and raise, you put everyone else in the hand on the defensive.

It gathers a lot of information on the cheaper streets.

If you raise on the button, the only person who bets out in front of you is someone that the flop hit square in the face.

People will generally check to you and you can either bet (I would usually bet here to punish the drawing hands) or take off a free card (I would usually bet the flop and take the free card on the turn), but you can figure out where you are in the hand very quickly.

There is so little slow playing in this game, I like to keep betting until I am given a reason to slow down.

(By the way, I think Toots is dead on about the unsuited part...this hand goes way down in value without the suits matched up.)

I have always limped with this hand in the past, but wonder if that really is the best action.

Dave

[GooperMC]

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise on the button, the only person who bets out in front of you is someone that the flop hit square in the face.

[/ QUOTE ]
But this is what you don't want and is exactly what I was questioning in my original post. This is going to price everyone in to draw.

Lets say that you raise pre-flop and 4 other players call. There will be 10SB in the pot. You flop comes nicely ragged K, 8, 4, and it is checked around to you. You bet, now everyone is getting 10:1 on their calls and will be correct to call with almost anything.

Now lets say that you limp. There will be 6SB in the pot. Same flop and it is checked around to the CO who decides to bet because he is in good position and nobody raise pre-flop. Now you can raise him and everyone is going to have to cold call 1BB in a 3BB pot.

This is almost the prefect situation but it makes the point. Keeping the pot small pre-flop will make it so that you can clear people out on the flop and drastically increase your chance to scoop a pot with a bunch of dead money in it.

[Ironman]

Goop...

Pot odds...you're right. I know you're right. That's how we play. You are dead on.

But you are giving these guys WAY too much credit (especially at .5/1).

A raise on the button means that your opponents have to make a decision in an uncomfortable spot. Every time you make someone make another decision under the gun, they have an opportunity to make a mistake. That's Ray Zee talking right there, not me. O8 is a game where you make money from people making mistakes more than outplaying your opponent. (I'm paraphrasing...sorry Ray.)

I really don't think you mind if people are drawing against you.

Does someone else have an A 2? Maybe, probably not.

Could someone back into a better high hand? Of course. But there is a lot of dead money coming into this hand.

I love it when there are people with a worse hand than me, calling my raise.

This raise could easily make someone fold the potential winning hand on the turn.

I'll take a look at my PT stats on this this weekend and see how the hands played out. I'll see if anything comes close to what we are talking about.

It's a very good question.

[gergery]

I think there are 3 classes of hands:

1) Hands that are playable, but have a small EV+ expectation and so should not be raised.

2) Hands that are moderately strong, are EV+, and could be raised, but that by raising them you give up some value (i.e give hand away, creates a pot that doesn’t allow for opponents mistakes). But raising reduces the overall value of this class of hands down to where it is isn’t strong enough to raise. Essentially, your hand is strong enough to raise in a vacuum (or against the completely clueless), but is not strong enough to “pay the cost” of raising against most opponents.

3) Hands that are very strong, and should be raised because their EV is strong enough that getting more money in now outweighs the “cost” you pay to raise

You are saying that AA2 falls into class 2 instead of class 3. Personally, I’d say its class 3, and so would raise.

--Greg

[AnyAce]

I am with Greg on this one. I think its a premium hand and worth a raise.

In addition, as someone noted I think the idea that your typical low limit player is thinking "hmmm, 6 sb, I better fold because the pot odds aren't there, but if they were 10 sb, I would call with just about anything" is not realistic.

I haven't this thinking much until you get to 3/6 or 5/10 and even then I see people colding 2 bets with A4xx preflop so I'd be glad to raise with AA2x and hope to pound'em...

AA

[Ribbo]

IF you're not raising AA2 rainbow from the button, what in high hell are you waiting for????????? (needs more ?)
If you're going to wait for AA2 suited, then would you mind telling everyone exactly how often you think that's going to happen.

[GooperMC]

I am saying that in EP I will raise hands when I want to push people out and raise in LP when I want to keep people in.

Example: I will always raise AA2 rainbow from EP but am thinking about not raising it from LP.

Example 2: I will never raise A2 suited or A23 from EP but will always raise in LP.

[ QUOTE ]
what in high hell are you waiting for

[/ QUOTE ]
A hand that plays better in a multiway pot then it does in a short handed pot.