top set on scary board (50NL 6 max)

[rachelwxm]

Hi, this is from party poker 6max 50NL a while back. Blinds are .25/.5, stack size $50.

I was dealt 55 UTG and I limped, one guy limped and button raised to $2.5, we both called. The flop was 543 all same suit, I bet pot $7 and limper pushed all in, button folded.

Who calls here? No reads.

Thanks for the response.

[djoyce003]

what did button do...did he fold or did he call?

I think its fairly plausible that you are behind the naked ace of that suit having both a flush draw plus gutshot. There is also a chance you are behind.....if the other guy calls, this is a very easy call. If the other guy folded you have to determine how often you think you are ahead, and how often you are behind. If he's drawing he's only 30% to beat you...if you are drawing you are only about 30% to win.........I probably call here.

[rachelwxm]

Edited my post, button folded, I guess i won't be asking the question if button called. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
Yeah, I am either 2:1 dog against made flush/straight, 2:1 favorate against flush draw. I am crushing him if he has lower set, 2 pair, etc.

I definatly call here.

[djoyce003]

I think you are ahead of a whole lot more hands than you are behind....i can see you easily being ahead of 2 pair, a lower set, or a draw WAY more than you are behind the flopped straight or flush.

[joecacti]

I like your play, including the PSB. If he had a flush, he would probably just extract, by calling your bet. You could put him on 67 for the str8, and trying to take the pot off this scary board. Of course, the suited Ace with the gutshot is possible, but you want to call that. But since you have no read, it's possible that he's just represnentin something scary. It seems that a call here is just peachy. Maybe he has 33?

I dont think it makes sense for him to push here with a made flush, not with a PFR yet to act behind him and someone betting the pot into him. But some people flop big hands and push instantly, so you never know.

Pushing here with a straight makes sense. But I think theres a lot of other hands he'd push here too. Overpair with the [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], naked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], lower set, str8flush draw.

I'd call here and plan on winning over 50% of the time.

Its a push, and its not even close. Do you see why?

What hands do you put him on?
44,33,54,34,26,A2,67, high pp, flush draw, or a made flush come to mind.

You are ahead of 60% of these hands. Probably more, but without a read on villain its hard to be sure.

Not to mention that youve got 7 outs on the flop if youre wrong. 10 outs on the turn if it misses you.

MDoranD