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#21
10-20-2005, 03:57 PM
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Re: Bluff EV
[ QUOTE ]
By the way, I hate betting this flop. If we do have equity, we are vulnerable to losing it at a later time when we fold correctly to a raise behind us. Small pot, let's see what the turn brings. [/ QUOTE ] With only 3 opponents, the chance that our hand is good right now is very high. If we get raised, then we can safely check-fold the turn barring improvement. If we just get called, then we can continue betting the turn and possibly the river. 
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#22
10-20-2005, 04:31 PM
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Re: Bluff EV
[ QUOTE ]
Also our hand is vulnerable - half the deck brings overcards to our pair. Get your opponents to fold now. [/ QUOTE ] Although I'm starting to like betting a little bit more, vulnerability is really not an issue. The pot is so small, we have nothing to protect.
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#23
10-20-2005, 04:32 PM
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Re: Bluff EV
Nit: Theres only 2 opponents so we (I) should (have) bet even more.
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#24
10-20-2005, 05:45 PM
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Re: Bluff EV
There's three opponents.
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#26
10-21-2005, 07:58 AM
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Re: Bluff EV
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Bet the flop already. [/ QUOTE ] What about a check/raise plan (depending on who bets and how many opponents call)? [/ QUOTE ] Ragged flop with 3 opponents, no need to get tricky. [/ QUOTE ] I still think checking is superior to betting. 1) We are not very concerned about giving a free card as the pot is small. 2) We won`t buy the pot right now very often by betting against 3 opponents. 3) The turn will be easier to play. (whats your plan if there is lets say 2 callers and a blank on the turn?) 4) If it is checked to the button who bets we will be able to create a HU situation against a probably worse hand. 5) We will be able to see how much our opponents like their hands and get off the hand easily if behind.
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#27
10-21-2005, 08:57 AM
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Re: Bluff EV
[ QUOTE ]
1) We are not very concerned about giving a free card as the pot is small. [/ QUOTE ] But our hand has a good chance of being the best hand. Why would we want to give our opponents infinite odds to draw out no matter how big the pot is. What are we hoping to gain by giving a free card? [ QUOTE ] 2) We won`t buy the pot right now very often by betting against 3 opponents. [/ QUOTE ] There are only two opponents and if we have an excellent chance to have the best hand then we are not "buying the pot" We have the best hand. [ QUOTE ] 3) The turn will be easier to play. (whats your plan if there is lets say 2 callers and a blank on the turn?) [/ QUOTE ] The turn will be HARDER to play. If someone had TP, they had no reason to slowplay it on the flop. Only a very very passive player would check TP through in this situation. If we give a free card and another high card comes on the turn and someone bets we will probably have to fold and the chance that we were bluffed out is greater. Now there are 2 overcards on the board for you to be beat by. I know if I'm last against 2 other opponents and its checked through on the flop and then checked to me on the turn I'm very likely to take a stab at it. I've had a very high success rate at doing this because it usually means no one has anything (including myself) and that the first one to bet takes down the pot. If a blank hits on the turn and its checked through you bet again because the card was unlikely to help anyone and you figure to still be out in front. [ QUOTE ] 4) If it is checked to the button who bets we will be able to create a HU situation against a probably worse hand. [/ QUOTE ] Great, except you just gave him a free card to draw out on you with. [ QUOTE ] 5) We will be able to see how much our opponents like their hands and get off the hand easily if behind. [/ QUOTE ] Everyone has already checked through, telling you they aren't fans of their hand. There was a straight draw on board. Giving free cards with draws on board is a mistake. If an opponent checked TP through twice and goes on to win the hand say "nh" and put him on your buddy list.
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#28
10-21-2005, 09:56 AM
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Re: Bluff EV
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 1) We are not very concerned about giving a free card as the pot is small. [/ QUOTE ] But our hand has a good chance of being the best hand. Why would we want to give our opponents infinite odds to draw out no matter how big the pot is. What are we hoping to gain by giving a free card? [ QUOTE ] 2) We won`t buy the pot right now very often by betting against 3 opponents. [/ QUOTE ] There are only two opponents and if we have an excellent chance to have the best hand then we are not "buying the pot" We have the best hand. [ QUOTE ] 3) The turn will be easier to play. (whats your plan if there is lets say 2 callers and a blank on the turn?) [/ QUOTE ] The turn will be HARDER to play. If someone had TP, they had no reason to slowplay it on the flop. Only a very very passive player would check TP through in this situation. If we give a free card and another high card comes on the turn and someone bets we will probably have to fold and the chance that we were bluffed out is greater. Now there are 2 overcards on the board for you to be beat by. I know if I'm last against 2 other opponents and its checked through on the flop and then checked to me on the turn I'm very likely to take a stab at it. I've had a very high success rate at doing this because it usually means no one has anything (including myself) and that the first one to bet takes down the pot. If a blank hits on the turn and its checked through you bet again because the card was unlikely to help anyone and you figure to still be out in front. [ QUOTE ] 4) If it is checked to the button who bets we will be able to create a HU situation against a probably worse hand. [/ QUOTE ] Great, except you just gave him a free card to draw out on you with. [ QUOTE ] 5) We will be able to see how much our opponents like their hands and get off the hand easily if behind. [/ QUOTE ] Everyone has already checked through, telling you they aren't fans of their hand. There was a straight draw on board. Giving free cards with draws on board is a mistake. If an opponent checked TP through twice and goes on to win the hand say "nh" and put him on your buddy list. [/ QUOTE ] Um - I am talking about the flop play, right?! I am of course betting the turn.
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#29
10-21-2005, 01:36 PM
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Re: Bluff EV
I am talking about the flop play. But in order to choose the correct flop play you should be developing a plan for the ENTIRE hand. You should consider what could happen on the turn before deciding what to do on the flop.
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#30
10-21-2005, 01:54 PM
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Re: Bluff EV
[ QUOTE ]
Obviously it was if you show everyone folding[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] No, that doesn't necessarily make it a good bluff. It's possible that no one layed down a hand better than hero's here. In that case, it's clearly best just to call to try to get MP1 to call with whatever he has.
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