KK: Too weak tight?

caggin · #1 01-17-2005, 03:21 AM

Hi everyone! My first post (no reads yet):

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds.

Flop: (8.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP2 calls, Hero...folds?

TwoShedsJackson · #2 01-17-2005, 06:28 AM

Calls down. You're more likely than usual to be beat on this board than many others but I think if you check/call to the river with a KK overpair at this limit, you'll rarely be wrong.

ajrenni · #3 01-17-2005, 09:31 AM

I think you have to call down here as well. As SSH repeatedly emphasizes, when the pot is big, you have to hang in there. Sometimes you'll build a big pot with a hand like KK and commit yourself to a likely losing showdown, but that's poker. Besides, this guy may just have a 9 (or he may be bluffing). Just because the turn completed possible straight and flush draws doesn't mean he has them - he liked the flop enough to 3-bet.

- Andy

tiltaholic · #4 01-17-2005, 10:43 AM

welcome!

i could not fold the turn. that may be a leak of mine.
i think calling down is ok without any reads.
it's more likely he has a nine than a ten simply by virtue of the fact that there are already 2 tens on the board.

caggin · #5 01-18-2005, 05:12 AM

Thanks for the responses. You all were right and I'll just have to play better next time. I folded and was very unhappy to see the K of hearts come on the river. Worst thing was that I had both opponents beat on every street! Results:

BB has 9c Js (two pair, tens and nines).
MP2 has Jh 8d (flush, king high).
Outcome: MP2 wins 12.75 BB.

<sigh>...lose and learn...

TwoShedsJackson · #6 01-18-2005, 06:30 AM

Don't think in terms of the results: at the time you figured you were beaten and folded, that another K (the only one that would have won you the hand) came on the river or that you folded the best hand at the time shouldn't concern you too much (just a little bit, maybe [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

dauler · #7 01-18-2005, 02:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
at the time you figured you were beaten and folded

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a sentiment that I see too much of here at 2+2, folding doesn't become correct when you have the best hand at the moment less than half of the time and very little in terms of draws, it becomes correct the cost of calling down compared to pot odds you're being offered is a smaller percent than you estimate your hand will drag the pot on the river. In this pot I think that would be 2 to 12.5, so he would have to estimate his hand to win less than 16 percent of the time for a fold to be correct. As a caveat, with good reads on your opponent I believe that a fold here can be correct.

Askilus · #8 01-18-2005, 02:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Just because the turn completed possible straight and flush draws doesn't mean he has them - he liked the flop enough to 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't necessarily mean that he had a made hand at the flop. He could be pumping Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

jrz1972 · #9 01-18-2005, 02:48 PM

Call down. You have an overpair. The pot is large. Your opponent could easily be overplaying a 9. Granted, you are probably going to lose this pot, but you will often enough to turn a profit over the long run.

Theres a section on this idea in SSHE. Miller was talking about crying calls on the river as opposed to calling down from the turn, but the idea's the same. When you have a strong hand in a large pot but suspect you may be beaten, calling down is not a sucker play. Folding is.