College Football 10/23: Is this line "correct"?

[redraw]

Wisconsin -12 vs. Northwestern.

Seems like an awfully low spread for undefeated Wiskey at home- even without their star DE James. NW will get some action based sheerly on their victory over the Buckeyes 3 weeks ago, but I think this line should be closer to 20 (not to mention OSU's collapse since). NW has racked up yards this year, but I typically give the edge to the defense in these type of "Potent O meets tenacious D" matchups...

Would love to hear a case for NW plus 12 by anyone who likes the dog in this spot...

[bugstud]

The risk of a meltdown by Wisc after beating up on Purdue is present...

I'm not sure which way to bet this one, I think a good portion of the wins will fall by less than 14 here, which is why I am thinking about the cover. Even if NW gets down by a bunch they could score a lot in the 4th for a backdoor.

[kdog]

What bugstud says has merit. NW is the kind of team that hangs around and is hard to put away spread wise. They also play the full 60 minutes and have one of those QB's that seems to turn an almost sack into a 30 yd prayer completion for a first down once or twice a game. 12 seems like a pretty good head start to me.

[MicroBob]

At UW I would be inclined to take the Badgers on this one...but I will likely take a pass unless it somehow comes down to 10 or so.