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  #1  
Old 10-27-2005, 09:24 PM
steamboatin steamboatin is offline
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Default Is calling the turn and river stupid?

#Game No : 2940980961
***** Hand History for Game 2940980961 *****
$0.50/$1 Omaha Hi/Lo - Thursday, October 27, 20:59:22 EDT 2005
Table Table 65280 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: MrM221 ( $50.29 )
Seat 9: pokerlover03 ( $26.54 )
Seat 4: steamboatin ( $24.50 )
Seat 10: Phlembouyant ( $28.45 )
Seat 3: panicinhanoi ( $21.25 )
Seat 5: ZATHRUS2 ( $14 )
Seat 2: alpro ( $17.99 )
Seat 8: JFCSURF ( $28.88 )
Seat 7: Patslucy ( $28.63 )
Seat 6: jhockey111 ( $18.50 )
Patslucy posts small blind [$0.25].
JFCSURF posts big blind [$0.50].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to steamboatin [ Ks Ac As 3c ]
pokerlover03 calls [$0.50].
Phlembouyant folds.
MrM221 folds.
alpro folds.
panicinhanoi folds.
steamboatin raises [$1].
ZATHRUS2 folds.
jhockey111 calls [$1].
Patslucy folds.
JFCSURF calls [$0.50].
pokerlover03 calls [$0.50].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5c, Tc, 7c ]
JFCSURF checks.
pokerlover03 checks.
steamboatin bets [$0.50].
jhockey111 calls [$0.50].
JFCSURF calls [$0.50].
pokerlover03 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5h ]
JFCSURF checks.
steamboatin checks.
jhockey111 bets [$1].
JFCSURF calls [$1].
steamboatin calls [$1].
** Dealing River ** [ Qc ]
JFCSURF checks.
steamboatin checks.
jhockey111 bets [$1].
JFCSURF folds.
steamboatin calls [$1].
jhockey111 shows [ 5s, 8s, 9s, Ts ] a full house, Fives full of tens.
steamboatin doesn't show [ Ks, Ac, As, 3c ] a flush, ace high.
jhockey111 wins $10.25 from the main pot with a full house, Fives full of tens.
There was no qualifying low hand.
Game #2940987609 starts.


I think I just spewed some chips.
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  #2  
Old 10-27-2005, 10:43 PM
Burdzthewurd Burdzthewurd is offline
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Default Re: Is calling the turn and river stupid?

I'm still leading out on the turn most times. You raised pf, and you generally aren't going to see people calling raises with 55xx, 77xx, T5xx or 57xx unless they have A3/A2/A4 with it, and it's unlikely with you having two of the Aces. You'll see someone bluff when you check that turn a lot of the time as well (as in maybe bet an overpair, or bet a smaller flush). I don't see a fold in here, still having two Aces to win for high (though it'd put a low on the board, which is probably what JFCSurf is fishing for), and four deuces for nut low, along with twelve other cards that make you 2nd nut low. 18 outs to half pot is a decent peel to me at least. Since you don't know wear you are at by just check/calling the turn, I think you should pay it off. Follow around guys who peel one off with top and bottom pair on a 3-flush board!
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  #3  
Old 10-27-2005, 11:31 PM
sy_or_bust sy_or_bust is offline
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Default Re: Is calling the turn and river stupid?

Calling the turn is a good idea, and calling the river OK (not sober) - too bad you lost.
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  #4  
Old 10-28-2005, 01:30 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Default Re: Is calling the turn and river stupid?

Steamboatin’ - At the point where you call the bet on the third betting round, you can add up what is already in the pot and what you expect to be in the pot at the showdown, exclusive of what the next two big bets will cost you. If you do that, I think you’ll come up with slightly better than four to one implied pot odds for the 3rd and 4th betting rounds combined. After you check the turn, showing weakness, jhockey111 does not necessarily need a full house to bet, and JFCSURF does not need a full house to call. Either, both or neither of them could have a full house at this point. You just can’t really tell.

You shouldn’t want to draw for the nut flush once the board is paired, but here you already have the nut flush. Having the nut flush is quite a different situation than drawing to the nut flush.

Think of it this way: Would you call with the lowest possible full house? Well, the nut flush is just the next step down from the worst full house.

You have no blockers (cards the same rank as board cards). With no blockers:
• with nine no-fold-’em opponents, the nut flush loses to a full house or quads 8534/10000.
• with eight no-fold-’em opponents, the nut flush loses to a full house or quads 8054/10000.
• with seven no-fold-’em opponents, the nut flush loses to a full house or quads 7463/10000.
• with six no-fold-’em opponents, the nut flush loses to a full house or quads 6764/10000.
• with five no-fold-’em opponents, the nut flush loses to a full house or quads 5969/10000.
• with four no-fold-’em opponents, the nut flush loses to a full house or quads 5057/10000.
• with three no-fold-’em opponents, the nut flush loses to a full house or quads 4041/10000.
• with two no-fold-’em opponents, the nut flush loses to a full house or quads 2858/10000.

You started with nine opponents, but six of them folded before the flop. In terms of enrichment of hands that would make a full house with this flop, no particular enrichment should have taken place. Thus you can think of the hands that would make a full house with this particular flop in terms of three no-fold-em opponents. Not even that because the hands that did see this flop were probably enriched in wheel cards and high cards. But O.K., let’s figure in terms of three opponents with random hands seeing this flop. In that case there’s about a forty per cent chance an opponent will end up with a full house if this board pairs. And if the board does pair on the turn and the river is a high card, low is not possible, so that you’re playing for the whole pot.

Then when the board does pair on the turn and the river is a high card, there’s still the forty per cent chance an opponent has ended up with a full house - and low is not possible.

Now let’s think about what jhockey111 and JFCSURF probably think about your hand.
• For your raise before the flop, you might have held A2XY, A3XY, AAXY, or even A4XY - or you might have held something else, especially maybe four high cards, HHHH, to raise before the flop.
• With this particular flop, jhockey111 and JFCSURF should immediately be aware of the possibility that you have a flush. But you don’t necessarily need the nut flush to bet this flop. You could be continuing to bet the pair of aces, or you could be betting A2XY, A3XY, A4XY, or some combination of these, possibly also with clubs. You also might somehow have flopped a set or two pair.
• Then when you check the turn, your hand looks more like a low draw still looking for a third low card on the river, possibly with clubs or maybe two pairs. Since you didn’t bet the turn, your hand doesn’t look much like a full house.

And you should think the same thing of their hands - with the added 40% probability either or both of them has a full house.

But it’s only a 40% probability.

Therefore, you definitely have to call this 3rd round bet - and whatever happens on the river, you’ll also definitely have to call a 4th round bet. The odds your flush is a winner are three to two. Meanwhile you’re getting four to one implied pot odds to call these two bets (taken together). The odds for calling are enormously in your favor.

Doesn't always work out for you when the odds are in your favor, but I think you do better, overall, by having the odds on your side than against you - and if you're going to play, you have to play when the odds are on your side.

Checking the river is better than betting for two reasons. (1) You get a bet from jhockey111 you might not have gotten if you bet yourself. (2) There’s that forty per cent chance jhockey111 has a full house, and if so, you’ll get raised and you should call the raise (because it might not be from a full house and the pot is too big to fold). Thus to bet the river, you should want the odds to be three to one in your own favor, rather than only three to two in your favor. Have you ever played backgammon with the doubling cube? The same three to one betting principle applies here.

Buzz
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  #5  
Old 10-28-2005, 01:40 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Default Re: Is calling the turn and river stupid?

[ QUOTE ]
I'm still leading out on the turn most times. You raised pf, and you generally aren't going to see people calling raises with 55xx, 77xx, T5xx or 57xx unless they have A3/A2/A4 with it, and it's unlikely with you having two of the Aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

Burdz - Better, I think, to check/call. Good point about 55xx, 77xx, T5xx or 57xx, but someone could easily have one five and be looking for the river to possibly make a full house. Or someone could have something like A2KK and be hoping for a king on the river. What I mean is 55xx, 77xx, T5xx or 57xx are not the only possibilities.

[ QUOTE ]
You'll see someone bluff when you check that turn a lot of the time as well (as in maybe bet an overpair, or bet a smaller flush).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Very good point.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see a fold in here

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely not!

But I disagree with you about Steamboatin’ not knowing where he is “at” after the turn. He's never going to know exactly, whether he bets or not. However at this point he should think he’s still the favorite, but that he’ll be less than a three to one favorite on the river. (The 3 to 1 backgammon doubling cube rule is the key here). Meanwhile these guys aren’t going away if he bets the turn, and if he bets and then gets popped (raised), he has a better idea of where he is, but it doesn't matter much because he should call the raise and probably also the probable subsequent 4th round bet anyway.

Betting here is kind of like finding the plate glass window with your nose. (O.K., now you know where it is. Great.)

Buzz
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  #6  
Old 10-28-2005, 05:37 AM
steamboatin steamboatin is offline
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Default Re: Is calling the turn and river stupid?

I have neer played backgamon.

I thought I was probably beat when the board paired. Betting seemed stupid and folding seemed way to weak tight.
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  #7  
Old 10-28-2005, 08:25 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Default Re: Is calling the turn and river stupid?

[ QUOTE ]
folding seemed way to weak tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.
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  #8  
Old 10-28-2005, 10:43 AM
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Default Re: Is calling the turn and river stupid?

I dont think so, not in a limit game. I pay off here unless I know i'm drawing at another A, which case i fold the turn.
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  #9  
Old 10-28-2005, 11:46 AM
kurto kurto is offline
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Default Re: Is calling the turn and river stupid?

Is this a limit game or a PL game?

If its not Limit... those bets are terrible.
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