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#1
10-28-2005, 04:56 PM
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50-100nl. Evaluating Flush Potential in Re-Raised Pot
My intuition is that the probability that I'm facing a flush on the turn after his pot bet is about 10%. Does this seem about right? LFISGD is, of course, extreme LAG. So am I. So against some players, certain flushes (3h6h, 7h3h, and other low suited cards) become unlikely given a pre-flop raise. Even against LFISGD, these cards are unlikely to be played in the face of a re-raise. KhTh, KhJh and the like are trap hands, especially against a player who will re-raise with anything, and will similarly be thrown away after a re-raise. That leaves only AhKh, Ah2h, 5h6h, 7h8h, 10hjh as likely holdings. Does anyone place the prob of a flush here at significantly higher than 10%? Some players are so LAG that they are always going to get paid off with set over set --- LFISGD is such a player. -Brandon
and #9173942-4654 at Bhipak (No Limit Hold'em) Powered by UltimateBet Started at 25/Oct/05 17:59:56 BrandonAdams is at seat 5 with $41621. LFISGD is at seat 6 with $20166.50. Green Plastic is at seat 7 with $10000 (sitting out). The button is at seat 6. LFISGD posts the small blind of $50. BrandonAdams posts the big blind of $100. BrandonAdams: 2s 2h LFISGD: -- -- Pre-flop: LFISGD raises to $200. BrandonAdams re-raises to $600. LFISGD calls. Flop (board: Qh 9h 2c): BrandonAdams bets $1200. LFISGD raises to $4800. BrandonAdams calls. Turn (board: Qh 9h 2c 4h): BrandonAdams checks. LFISGD bets $10800. BrandonAdams goes all-in for $36221. LFISGD goes all-in for $14766.50. BrandonAdams is returned $21454.50 (uncalled). River (board: Qh 9h 2c 4h 6c): (no action in this round) Showdown: BrandonAdams shows 2s 2h. BrandonAdams has 2s 2h Qh 9h 2c: three deuces. LFISGD shows 9d Qd. LFISGD has 9d Qd Qh 9h 6c: two pair, queens and nines. Hand #9173942-4654 Summary: $.50 is raked from a pot of $40333. BrandonAdams wins $40332.50 with three deuces. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Getting Hand History Information... The requested hand is not available. 
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#4
10-28-2005, 05:16 PM
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Re: 50-100nl. Evaluating Flush Potential in Re-Raised Pot
[ QUOTE ]
KhTh, KhJh and the like are trap hands, especially against a player who will re-raise with anything, and will similarly be thrown away after a re-raise. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] LFISGD raises to $200. BrandonAdams re-raises to $600. LFISGD calls. [/ QUOTE ] There is an essentially 0% chance that he folds KTh or KJh there.
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#5
10-28-2005, 05:17 PM
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Re: 50-100nl. Evaluating Flush Potential in Re-Raised Pot
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] KhTh, KhJh and the like are trap hands, especially against a player who will re-raise with anything, and will similarly be thrown away after a re-raise. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] LFISGD raises to $200. BrandonAdams re-raises to $600. LFISGD calls. [/ QUOTE ] There is an essentially 0% chance that he folds KTh or KJh there. [/ QUOTE ]beat me to it.
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#6
10-28-2005, 05:28 PM
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Re: 50-100nl. Evaluating Flush Potential in Re-Raised Pot
If you commit yourself on the flop (through reraising), you don't have to worry about the turn card on this draw-heavy board.
Of course, that move generally doesn't give the LAG enough rope. In this case, given his hand he'll get it allin happily on the flop, but he won't always have enough to call a 3-bet. So your line is probably better.
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#7
10-28-2005, 05:53 PM
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Re: 50-100nl. Evaluating Flush Potential in Re-Raised Pot
AZK, no one else at this forum leaves their ego at the door, not least the two founders, so why should I have to?
I fold KhJh and KhTh pre-flop to a re-raise with position against a very LAG player. In my experience, if you hit this hand, it is difficult to play and you usually end up getting your money in bad. It is especially tempting to overplay draws that you might on the flop with this hand. Also, if you have KhJh and the flop comes Jc2h3s, you have tough decisions ahead.
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#8
10-29-2005, 01:50 AM
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Re: 50-100nl. Evaluating Flush Potential in Re-Raised Pot
[ QUOTE ]
AZK, no one else at this forum leaves their ego at the door, not least the two founders, so why should I have to? I fold KhJh and KhTh pre-flop to a re-raise with position against a very LAG player. In my experience, if you hit this hand, it is difficult to play and you usually end up getting your money in bad. It is especially tempting to overplay draws that you might on the flop with this hand. Also, if you have KhJh and the flop comes Jc2h3s, you have tough decisions ahead. [/ QUOTE ] 1. The Stacks are deep 2. He only minraised. He only has to call $400 more. 3. Diablo is correct, 0% chance he folded KJ/KT.
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