Three Left

[KenProspero]

Three left (so have already made the money).

Big stack has about twice the chips as me.
Big stack is LAG
Third stack will be forced all-in on the big blind next hand.

Hero dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Small Stack (Button) folds.
Big Stack mini-raises.
Hero raises 1 x the pot.
Big Stack calls all-in.

What does hero do?

Call the all-in, and go for the win?
Fold, which will give me second almost assuredly, but significantly lower my chances to take first.

After thinking it over, I decided that the LAG could really have anything, and that with AKs, this gave me an excellent chance at taking the whole thing.

As fate would have it, LAG had Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. So my read was right. The three diamonds on the flop kinda wrecked my master plan, but that's poker, no complaints.

[BeantownCaller]

It's a crappy situation but AK suited is as good of a hand as you can ask for. If the chips were something like 8000, 1500 and 500 I'd say fold and wait for the big stack to take the guy out then try to win a few coinflips. But since your stacks were close enough that if you win (and you will win better than 50% of the time you can be pretty sure), you're in a much better place to take the win. In this situation I think you did the right thing but lets hear some other people chime in. If this was the final table of a 5000 person tourney then maybe I'd play it otherwise (probably not though [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]), but I see plenty more SNG's in your future you can win.

[Allinlife]

easy call especially ITM

[spentrent]

Assuming a 5:1 3:1 2:1 payout, I'm all-in with AK suited.

[Jake (The Snake)]

This is not a clear-cut case. It's hard to do without blind size and exact stack sizes, but I'll give it a shot.

We'll have to do a lot of assuming.

First, I'll assume $20 for 3rd, $30 for 2nd, $50 for 1st.

First, let's go over a call.

Let's assume you KNOW he has what he had, making you a 2:1 favorite.

(1/3) of the time you lose and end up with $20.
(2/3) of the time you win. You double up through the big stack and now have twice as many chips as him. We can assume, then, that you win heads-up (2/3) of the time and win $50. (1/3) of the time you lose and end with $30. (50*2/3)+(30*1/3)= $43

So on the call you get an EV of (20*1/3)+(43*2/3)= $35

For a fold...

We'll assume the 3rd guy gets knocked out. You win (1/4) of the time and lose (3/4) of the time.

(50*1/4)+(30*3/4)= an EV of $35

I may have made a mistake somewhere, but as you can see, this is not an EASY call. In fact, you can not tell your opponent has undercards. If he has a pair or *gasp* AA or KK, you are losing money by calling.

[KenProspero]

Thanks Jake:

It's a lot closer than I thought.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks Jake:

It's a lot closer than I thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

So are ya folding or pushing?

[Strollen]

[ QUOTE ]

We'll assume the 3rd guy gets knocked out. You win (1/4) of the time and lose (3/4) of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the mistake you made in the analysis. 1/2 the time the big blind is going to double next hand against the hero. Lets say with 2x BB the small stack doubles against you or the big stack the hand after that. Roughly 20-25% of the time, the small stack will have 4x BB. A cycle or two later you are in the same situation facing a mini raise from the Big stack with less chips and worse hand.

So I think the EV for folding looks closer to this until you double up against the Big stack

(20% * $50 + 60% *$30 + 20% *$20) = $32