When to Value bet when to not Value bet?

[crunchy1]

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My read on CO was he was value raising an ace, since there was no draw and frankly any ace on that board should be raised for value.

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So what leads you to believe that after value-raising his Ace he's going to fold?

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I'm a habitual bluffer from the BB into 2 LP limpers, so I will also bet a 4 here. I know they don't have 4's, but I'm the BB, I could have a 4.

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You know they don't have a 4? How's that?

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The T, almost always counterfits everyone's kicker if they did have an ace, so I'm 'freerolling' my bluff of having the 4, so I CR the turn representing an 4. It is 2/4 and nobody folds, but I can dream can't I?

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Sure, you can dream. It's just -EV.

[MVicuna]

Hi,

If SB three bets the entire field, I could be in trouble. I will call and hope I'm not drawing dead. If he bets into an over card/diamond that doesn't give me a gutshot or two pair I'm folding as my two pair outs are dirty.

If I call a 3 bet and someone caps behind me I cry and pray I hit my runner runner str8.

Yes, The pot will be much larger when I'm behind, but there are some good cards in the deck for me other then a 9/T so peeling one off has to be done if we get played back at.

In the A8 hand you posted about on a 875 two flush board, his only outs if behind are runner runner FH or a split pot. If somehow he'd had 89 or A8 with a backdoor flush I think he should continue on rather then fold as he has redraws on a lot of the bad turn cards.

Later,
MarkV.

[MVicuna]

Hi,

I know CO doesn't have a 4 because the 2/4 regulars don't fast play a 4 on the flop. They wait to raise the turn.

So that leaves MP, if he has a 4, Boo hoo I lose the 2BB I would have paid to see a showdown when he 3 bets and I fold, but an open limper is so rarely going to have a 4 I'm willing to bet 2BB on it.

Later,
MarkV.

[crunchy1]

You're original post was absurd - I've fixed it for you...

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I know CO doesn't have a 4 because I've seen the results of the hand

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[chief444]

MP3 is calling with something...likely one of the two remaining A's. CO would raise a 4 here as well on the flop and there are two 4's left. Plus CO posted and a 4 is just as likely as an ace. So you should be less than 50% sure. And since some aces do beat you probably more like 30% you're chopping. Also consider that CO is more likely to raise the flop with a 4 than a weak ace. The flop raise itself makes a 4 more likely. So all things considered I think about 75% of the time you're toast here and even calling down is questionable, IMO.

Meta-game doesn't really apply as much online and certainly not at Party 2/4.

You have little to no chance of getting a typical 2/4 player to lay down an ace...especially if he's raising the flop with it.

[MVicuna]

lol... Nice rebuttal...

So you disgree that your typical 2/4 player would wait till the turn to raise a 4?

I should make a poll, but you and I already know an overwhelming majority of SSHE posters will say your typical 2/4 player will NOT raise a 4 on this flop.

Sure a good player will raise the flop here for value as any ace is coming along, but we are talking typical 2/4 player. You know, the kind who ONLY 3 bets preflop with AA-JJ/AK/AQ but will limp with any two random cards. Or is there even a typical 2/4 player profile in your mind or do you just agree with posters you know and disagree with posters you don't know REGARDLESS if the give they same advice as you in THE EXACT SAME THREAD?

Later,
MarkV.

[MVicuna]

Hi,

Then 2/4 has changed a lot in the year since I last played it. As back then nobody was raising a 4 on this flop as they'd wait till the turn to raise the guy with the ace who can't fold.

Later,
MarkV.

[crunchy1]

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So you disgree that your typical 2/4 player would wait till the turn to raise a 4?

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No. I disagree that you're 100% sure that he doesn't have a 4. I'd appreciate it if you would make a better attempt at interpreting my replies instead of instantly being argumentative regarding them.

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You know, the kind who ONLY 3 bets preflop with AA-JJ/AK/AQ but will limp with any two random cards. Or is there even a typical 2/4 player profile in your mind or do you just agree with posters you know and disagree with posters you don't know REGARDLESS if the give they same advice as you in THE EXACT SAME THREAD?

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This is funny if you read this post/thread.

[MVicuna]

Hi,

Hand 1 :

Was checked around and I had dodged every over card that hurt me and I drag the pot.

Hand 2 :

I bet, MP3 called, CO delayed a bit and then called. CO and I split the pot and poor MP3's kings lose.

Maybe betting the turn would have been better as MP3 shouldnt have called two cold on the turn and apparently I'm the only one who folds to turn raises.

Later,
MarkV.

[Hoi Polloi]

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I know they don't have 4's, but I'm the BB, I could have a 4.

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By this reasoning why can't the poster have a 4? I know I always raise with 94o when I post, but I think that's not standard.