Pocket Aces and a beginner

[shant]

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The pot is something like 23BB when it gets to Hero on the river.
CO could be trying to shut Hero out of the GIGANTIMUNGONORMOUS pot and get it HU with maniac on the river.

IMO CO is raising with a worse hand than Hero more than the required 9% of the time for Hero to make the call.

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This is a good point. The CO would have to be a pretty advanced player to be trying this after that turn action, but you have a point. I think it's closer than I originally thought, but it's still definitely a fold the second time around.

[Yerma]

Why do you automatically give the CO credit for that sort of deep thought? This is one of the worst faults of the typical 2+2'er. You believe that someone is capable of pulling a fantastic move *every time that you are almost certainly losing a big pot* because you imagine that you might be able to pull such a move in the other guy's spot. The truth is that you are getting destroyed here for 4 bets on the river way way too often to go off for 4 bets.

Here is the remedy: first, observe that the player is capable of this sort of play by seeing what he had after the hand. Now, armed with an actual read, make the appropriate play next time. Don't play him like he's an awesome, tricky, 4-bet with less than the nuts, player. Play him for a typical player first and augment this with reads later.

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Why do you automatically give the CO credit for that sort of deep thought? This is one of the worst faults of the typical 2+2'er. You believe that someone is capable of pulling a fantastic move *every time that you are almost certainly losing a big pot* because you imagine that you might be able to pull such a move in the other guy's spot. The truth is that you are getting destroyed here for 4 bets on the river way way too often to go off for 4 bets.

Here is the remedy: first, observe that the player is capable of this sort of play by seeing what he had after the hand. Now, armed with an actual read, make the appropriate play next time. Don't play him like he's an awesome, tricky, 4-bet with less than the nuts, player. Play him for a typical player first and augment this with reads later.

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The problem is you haven't seen a single hand this guy has played. When there is a huge amount of money at stake and I'm dealing with an unknown, I'm going to treat him like he's Ed Miller.

[shant]

That's interesting, usually I treat an unknown as a typical player. Is this your standard for unknowns to swing them to good TAG players?

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That's interesting, usually I treat an unknown as a typical player. Is this your standard for unknowns to swing them to good TAG players?

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Only when there is a ridiculous amount of money in the pot, a maniac and an unknown are involved and the decision is between calling and folding.

Otherwise: default = donk. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Shillx]

Yeah calling on the flop really doesn't make much sense here, even with a maniac behind us. While a turn raise might knock out AK, it only nets us like 2.2 SB (assuming our hand is always good). Some times we will be way behind, so you would have to adjust it somewhat.

We probably have 45% equity on this flop and have a chance to get 16 SB into the middle. That is worth 3.2 SB right there. If we just call, sometimes it will be called though and then we get to raise the turn. Oftentimes it will get raised by the maniac and we will put a reraise in coming back. So even when we just call, we will usually be 3-betting or capping it anyway. Calling and then calling a raise is just way to risky because the only way to face the CO with 2 cold is to donk into the maniac. Even then, he might not fold that said AK. Might as well just goto war straight away and take the value.

The CO's line is worrisome, but is also quite fishy. His play sucks with a weak hand because nothing better is ever going to fold, and his play sucks with a strong hand since it will start slowing hands like AA down. Bad players do this [censored] all the time though, so I would not be suprised to see the joint here. He could have won a lot more by playing it straight up.

Brad

Dont fold the river. What do you think beats you??? Maybe a straight but the pot is big.

[Yerma]

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Yeah calling on the flop really doesn't make much sense here, even with a maniac behind us. While a turn raise might knock out AK, it only nets us like 2.2 SB (assuming our hand is always good). Some times we will be way behind, so you would have to adjust it somewhat.


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I don't understand the "nets us like 2.2 SB (assuming our hand is always good)" part. Why 2.2 SB?

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We probably have 45% equity on this flop and have a chance to get 16 SB into the middle. That is worth 3.2 SB right there. If we just call, sometimes it will be called though and then we get to raise the turn. Oftentimes it will get raised by the maniac and we will put a reraise in coming back. So even when we just call, we will usually be 3-betting or capping it anyway.


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Yes, I agree. If the maniac raises, we can 3-bet for value now. My problem with this argument is that you think we are knocking out the CO on the flop if he faces 2 cold w/AK. Unless you know him to be weak-tight, I don't think he is folding for 2 cold there! If you're trying to knock out AK, it's only going to happen on the turn. Any other hand CO might have had that only hit the flop sideways? You're still only knocking that out on the turn. That's my real problem with your argument. Those 16 SB you are trying to get into the middle are all in big danger when the river falls. You may end up gaining 3.2 SB and losing the pot. This is probably going to end up being a 20BB pot. If you let a gutshot or a one pair hand get a shot at seeing the river, you're dumping about 10% of what's going to end up being a 20BB pot. If you're up against both of those draws and could have knocked them *both* out (which would have been a coup) but took the value on the flop instead, that is horrible.

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...

The CO's line is worrisome, but is also quite fishy. His play sucks with a weak hand because nothing better is ever going to fold, and his play sucks with a strong hand since it will start slowing hands like AA down. Bad players do this [censored] all the time though, so I would not be suprised to see the joint here. He could have won a lot more by playing it straight up.


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And if he has a weak hand, you're still probably better knocking him out on the turn or forcing him to make a big, bad call. And if he has (or turns) a strong hand, the turn card may come bad and slow you down all by itself, and you'll be happy you didn't raise the flop.

[shant]

He's not saying you will knock AK out on the flop. You're really worrying too much about one opponent's hand and protecting against that and forgetting about the maniac and the other player.

Also, you didn't address your plan for when the maniac raises if you just call the flop. Are you 3-betting then? How are you waiting to protect at that point? What if the CO raises you on the flop?

[Yerma]

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Yes, I agree. If the maniac raises, we can 3-bet for value now.

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In the heat of battle, if the CO 3-bets, I may try to just call again on the flop and c/r the CO on the turn if a blank hits. It might be better to just 3-bet the flop instead.

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If you let a gutshot or a one pair hand get a shot at seeing the river, you're dumping about 10% of what's going to end up being a 20BB pot. If you're up against both of those draws and could have knocked them *both* out (which would have been a coup) but took the value on the flop instead, that is horrible.

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In multiway pots, I'm worried about everyone's hand.