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#1
12-12-2005, 10:21 AM
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Re: 10/20 QQ
I think the most likely hands for UTG+1 is TT-77. In a 6-handed pot I don't think a tight and rather passive player like this will raise with a flushdraw very often, but that's still a possibility. There's also a risk we're up against a set.
I think SBs range is rather big. Flushdraw with overs, overpair, sets, all are likely. We're definately ahead more often than not against these players. By calling the flop we're giving UTG+1 odds to call with his most likely hands, 77-TT, to spike a set. I think that would be a mistake, since we're ahead of SB more often than not (at least 75/25 imo). I can see a point in calling the flop and raising the turn to charge draws, but I don't think SB and UTG+1 is on flush-/straightdraws often enough to justify that line. Besides the plan to charge draws might backfire. If UTG+1 is on a flushdraw+overs he might cap for a freecard, a freecard at least I would offer him if he caps. If SB is on a flushdraw he might check the turn, making us unable to raise. In either case we might and up in a tough spot on the turn. If we cap the flop and get raised on the turn or if we call the flop and get 3-betted on the turn I would be calling down crying knowing I'm about to lose. 
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#2
12-12-2005, 10:47 AM
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Re: 10/20 QQ
bust a cap in their ass(es).
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#3
12-12-2005, 11:55 AM
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Re: 10/20 QQ
Without reading the other replies, I say call 2 cold and raise the SB's turn bet on a non-heart turn. The SB's 3-bet reeks of a big draw, but it could also be an indication of a small 2 pair, made str8, or a set....he could also be bumping A6 here. That said, I put him on a draw as the most likely thing and try to push UTG+1 out on the turn. UTG+1 is only 16.8 which makes it very possible that he floated a medium pair or, much less likely, suited heart broadway.
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#5
12-12-2005, 04:14 PM
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Re: 10/20 QQ
[12:08] me: I don't know that it's that close
[12:08] me: sb's check3bet is usually a biggish draw [12:08] me: more often than 88 i think [12:09] me: add that to the fact that you won't like raising ~20% of the time [12:10] me: and if he has 88 there are a fair # of cards that he may not lead [12:10] me: and you're usually "waiting" to fold a 2-outer that UTG+1 can hold [12:10] me: given that you hold the Qh a lot of his weak coldcalling-an-EP-raiser-hands are out [12:11] me: I guess I could post all this [12:11] me: but you know what it would amount to? [12:11] me: me saying "cap it up"
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