$22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[11t]

Okay, ICM takes into account many things. One thing it does not take into account is multiway pots.

By pushing here you are giving yourself the best chance to get HU and race. You have probably little to no fold equity. I would rather take this race HU than get 33 next hand and race 3 other stacks and bust.

ICM counts for a lot, but not everything. There is a reason why there is a range of -EV to +EV decisions where SNGPT indicates marginal decisions. In such places there are other factors that should weigh heavily in your decision. This is one of those cases.

I push here, this is probably the most +EV spot you are going to get. J8os is a decent hand and the BB is very likely to call with like 95% of his hands and fold 72os.

I think the key idea here is the likelyhood of the SB folding which I think is decently high.