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#1
06-24-2005, 09:39 PM
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Flopping Sets Dry Spells
I had a terrible run of cards with my pocket pairs earlier today during a 3 hour session (running 4 tables). I counted in PT around 40 pocket pairs that didn't hit sets on the flop. Not one during the entire session...I hit one or two or the flop or river and I had some high PP's hold up, so all was not lost.
I'm wondering how long some of you guys have gone w/o flopping sets. I haven't really been playing long enough to know how long those dry spells can go. Anyway, I figured I'd have a nice run of sets in the near future and low and behold I sat down tonight and hit on my first 3 pocket pairs, one time flopping quads when I had 10-10 and the flop came 10-10-5. The other guy had 5-5 and we capped on each street earning me a nice sized pot [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] 
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#2
06-24-2005, 09:50 PM
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Re: Flopping Sets Dry Spells
One common misconception about probability and statistics is that after a losing streak players think that they are "due" for a winning streak... whereas you are as equally likely to go on a losing streak as a winning streak (assuming you play perfectly 'average' poker).
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#3
06-24-2005, 10:03 PM
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Re: Flopping Sets Dry Spells
I don't think I had any misconception at all. I was a math minor and took my share of stats courses, so I have a pretty solid understand of stats. In the long run in poker things always even out to their statistical probability. If you're right under 12% to flop a set or quads, then 0 out of 50 is an obvious lag and will have to be made up at some point.
The point of the post was to see how long others have gone without flopping a set not to discuss statistics.
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#4
06-24-2005, 10:07 PM
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Re: Flopping Sets Dry Spells
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I had any misconception at all. I was a math minor and took my share of stats courses, so I have a pretty solid understand of stats. In the long run in poker things always even out to their statistical probability. If you're right under 12% to flop a set or quads, then 0 out of 50 is an obvious lag and will have to be made up at some point. [/ QUOTE ] The two bolded statements contradict one another.
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#7
06-24-2005, 10:10 PM
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Re: Flopping Sets Dry Spells
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I had any misconception at all. I was a math minor and took my share of stats courses, so I have a pretty solid understand of stats. In the long run in poker things always even out to their statistical probability. If you're right under 12% to flop a set or quads, then 0 out of 50 is an obvious lag and will have to be made up at some point. The point of the post was to see how long others have gone without flopping a set not to discuss statistics. [/ QUOTE ] Are you sure you were a statistics major? It is not guaranteed to make it up at some point, it will only regress to the mean. Your odds of flopping a set won't magically become 2-7.5 rather than 1-7.5 because you've gone 15 pocket pairs without hitting. You're just as likely to have a hot streak as a cold streak, but they are completely independant. You are just as likely to hit normally for a run and then run cold as you are to run hot.
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