middle pair, being raised on the turn hu

gamblore99 · #1 09-18-2005, 02:41 PM

after 105 hands
52/3/0.92

Hands like these I am really unsure of. Please try to explain your turn play, or if you would play other street differently than explain why. Are his stats the main thing for a call/fold here. What is the cutoff for the stats that would change your decision?
Ok I will stop posting hands for a bit
Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP calls.

Flop: (5 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP raises, Hero ???

bank · #2 09-18-2005, 02:43 PM

I call turn and c/f river UI.

Poldi · #3 09-18-2005, 02:47 PM

Absolutely drawless flop, yet he calls the K-high-board against a preflopraise. I doubt he improved on the turn, I think he waited with a King, 2pair or set for the turn to raise >90% of the time. There is nothing to semibluff here unless he would call the flop with a gutshot (JT). His stats dont look like he is the type that does a lot of stonecold bluffs.
This hand goes in the muck.

Lmn55d · #4 09-18-2005, 02:47 PM

Is this because you expect him to check behind a worse hand sometimes? Because getting 6.5:1 isn't enough for a 5 outer.

Jinx · #5 09-18-2005, 02:51 PM

I would do the same thing in his shoes with a 9, but then again my post flop agg is 3, not .92. I think it's a call vs an aggresive opponent but a fold vs this guy.

gamblore99 · #6 09-18-2005, 02:52 PM

Poldi, thank you for your excellent response.

joker122 · #7 09-18-2005, 03:00 PM

pretty standard fold against even an unknown. his stats make me feel even better about folding though.

bank · #8 09-18-2005, 03:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is this because you expect him to check behind a worse hand sometimes? Because getting 6.5:1 isn't enough for a 5 outer.

[/ QUOTE ]

That and I expect to get 1-2 bets more on the river if I hit. This is still an incorrect call?

Lmn55d · #9 09-18-2005, 03:19 PM

Well you cannot say your implied odds are 2. If an ace comes you should probably bet out. A 9 you should probably checkraise, but sometimes villain will check through. On average your implied odds are probably like 1.5 or something. Since you need 8.4:1 to call with a 5 outer, this is still not enough. Also sometimes he will have a set. Or you will checkraise and he will fold a weak hand or bluff sometimes (rarely).

Villain needs to check through the river with a weaker hand sometimes (a small percentage of the time) to make this call correct.

EDIT: It is definitely reasonable to think that a LP villain will check a worse hand behind on this river if he was trying some sort of free showdown raise. But how often will such an opponent be making a free showdown raise on this board? Pretty rarely imo. If the turn introduced some draws he could be semibluffing, the pot was a little bigger, or the opponent was more aggressive, I would be seeing a showdown here.