KJ on bubble. Is this a push? - Page 2

tigerite · #1 07-14-2005, 06:23 AM

I'm not too sure about a "good chance of folding the button" as he has 5800 chips. SB is a bit more debateable, a call from him and he'll have 1100 left if he loses, with the BB now on 200 odd (he'd fold for sure), so he doesn't really have much to lose either. In these situations I think both button and SB would call with a far looser range of hands than is really good for me with KJo.

johnnybeef · #2 07-14-2005, 06:33 AM

this is a pretty easy fold

oneeye13 · #3 07-14-2005, 07:52 AM

make it 480?

tigerite · #4 07-14-2005, 07:52 AM

No, making it 480 is beyond terrible, big stack just pushes 100% of the time if you do that (or he should, unless he's a total idiot), and you lose the chips.

lacky · #5 07-14-2005, 08:09 AM

at least 80% of the hands you would think about pushing here is a fold. This is just one of those time you play like a wimp and it is correct to do so.

Steve

kamrann · #6 07-14-2005, 08:24 AM

Ignore SNGPT - ICM no good here since short stack is so small relative to BB and is currently in the BB.

I sure wouldn't push, however I wonder if a limp isn't a decent play here. The problem with folding is that you really don't want it to fold to the SB who decides he's going to put shorty allin with his T3o and double him up. And folds all around is also a bad result for you. You probably have the best hand out there so it seems wrong to me to let the BB off by folding it and giving him a better shot at surviving by not having to beat your hand.

If you limp the BB doesn't get a free ride, and you probably encourage one or both of the big stacks in to try to help beat him. The fact that you allow him to see a flop is irrelevant since he's calling allin to a raise anyway, and it's way better than giving him a walk. If one of the big stacks tries a move by pushing behind your limp, then thats fine. Either shorty calls and you can call also if you choose knowing that it's highly unlikely you'll finish 4th, or he folds and you can happily fold also knowing it only cost you 200 chips to cut him in half down to 1 BB, which I think is a very good deal for you, you've definitely increased your equity by doing so.

For the same reasons I don't think a min raise is as bad a play as has been suggested, but the limp is better because it hasn't affected your stack so much should a big stack force you out and then shorty proceeds to get lucky and hang on a bit longer.

Thoughts?

tigerite · #7 07-14-2005, 08:33 AM

If you limp and I'm big stack, or SB, in this hand I'm pushing 100% of hands. And shorty, unless he's a complete moron, is folding 100% of hands bar AA once it happens, in the hope you get involved.

I just don't see the need to waste the 200 chips like that.

tigerite · #8 07-14-2005, 08:37 AM

There is one other thing you're forgetting too, imagining that did all happen, the next hand you are on 1080 and he 280, you will have to call with any two to his push, and then you're about even stacks if his hand holds up.

kamrann · #9 07-14-2005, 08:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you limp and I'm big stack, or SB, in this hand I'm pushing 100% of hands. And shorty, unless he's a complete moron, is folding 100% of hands bar AA once it happens, in the hope you get involved.

I just don't see the need to waste the 200 chips like that.

[/ QUOTE ]
Come on, read the post. I know there's a good chance that one of the big stacks pushes on you, and that shorty will then fold hoping you bust out. The point is this is not a problem. You're not the idiot shorty hopes you are, you fold, and you've just cut the 4th position guys stack in half at a cost to you of only 1/6th of your stack. The point being you haven't wasted 200 chips at all, you've used them to increase your equity, just in a non-standard way.

As for the following hand, yeah it's not great when he pushes on you, but even if you lose with the blinds as they are you are far from 'about even' with him, and this is assuming that both big stacks fold the following hand, which they won't if they pick up anything at all playable.

If you fold the KJ, two things can happen. The short stack gets raised, he'll call and double up a good proportion of those times, probably about 40%, which is very bad for you. Or he'll get a walk, again very bad - you're in a much worse spot if he pushes into you the following hand for 580 than if he did for 280.

I'm not saying this is clear cut, or even that I would limp here. Just think it's a plausible option, and from your response I don't think you've really thought through the reasoning for my argument.

tigerite · #10 07-14-2005, 09:01 AM

But as pergesu correctly states (and I did read the post), if shorty calls when a big stack has gone over the top of you, he will have a _very_ good hand, one that has KJo beat that's for sure, so you still have to fold anyway. You can't do a "trap" kind of move with something as crappy as KJo.