Hammer the river?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Nothing solid on the Villan. Want to 3-bet the flop we want this heads up don't we?

PokerRoom 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], . UTG+1 posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (9 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (11 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero <font color="red"> bets<font color="#CC3333">, UTG raises, <font color="black"> Hero </font> ?

<font color="black"> Cap the river or just call. Does complete a couple of backdoor draws.

Probably pretty standard but my confidence is a little low right now. Thanks for looking.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm inclined to just call. I expect to see AK most of the time. Sometimes you'll see AA/KK and once in a while you'll see KJ. 3-betting opens the door to losing extra bets to the rake and better hands far more often than it opens the door to winning an extra bet from a worse hand.

AA - 1 combo
KK - 1 combo
AK - 4 combos
AJ - 6 combos
KJ - 6 combos
KT[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - 1 combo
KQ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - 1 combo
JJ - 3 combos



You need to be 2:1 favourite to 3bet here.
12 combos you beat, 4 you tie, 7 you lose.

I think you can discount a few of the combos you are behind to a point where a 3 bet becomes the right option.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
AA - 1 combo
KK - 1 combo
AK - 4 combos
AJ - 6 combos
KJ - 6 combos
KT[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - 1 combo
KQ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - 1 combo
JJ - 3 combos



You need to be 2:1 favourite to 3bet here.
12 combos you beat, 4 you tie, 7 you lose.

I think you can discount a few of the combos you are behind to a point where a 3 bet becomes the right option.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think AJ goes into the mix based on the flop action. There goes half of the combos you beat and already you lose more than you win. I'm not even sure if I would count all KJ combos as many players limp that from UTG.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AA - 1 combo
KK - 1 combo
AK - 4 combos
AJ - 6 combos
KJ - 6 combos
KT[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - 1 combo
KQ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - 1 combo
JJ - 3 combos



You need to be 2:1 favourite to 3bet here.
12 combos you beat, 4 you tie, 7 you lose.

I think you can discount a few of the combos you are behind to a point where a 3 bet becomes the right option.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think AJ goes into the mix based on the flop action. There goes half of the combos you beat and already you lose more than you win. I'm not even sure if I would count all KJ combos as many players limp that from UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

All he did was bet/call. But I see where you're coming from.

By the same logic though. I've got to eliminate JJ.
KTs is a bit of a stretch for a raise preflop.
And I'm sure AA, KK and AK play a lot faster than this.

I still think I'm favouring hands that we beat to play this way. Whether it's enough for a 3bet - meh, it's close.

Reads would definitely sway the decision.

EDIT: I've just bolded my statement from my first post to go with Greg's post below.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
And I'm sure AA, KK and AK play a lot faster than this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you in principle. But on the other hand (for reasons which I can't quite isolate), villain's line screams out "dopey slowplay" to me (the turn check-call with both A and K showing followed by the river check-raise -- it seems to say "I have at least AK", especially since hero 3-bet preflop in position against villain). The lack of a preflop cap is what makes me lean towards AK (well... that and the fact that there are many more AK hands than AA and KK hands). Maybe it's one of those poker deja vu moments, as if someone in the past had taken this line against me with AK in a similar situation.