AA in a big pot.

[MrEngenic]

I would have played it the same but I would not feel easy about the call when it's two bets to me on the river. Is this really a very safe fold? 3 bets and I fold in a heartbeat, one bet and I would never fold...

There is no way you can give this up at all in a pot of that size. The board is not very coordinated and looks like it might be good for you based on the preflop action. Were you against TT, JJ, or QQ?

The bottom line is that you may only win this pot 50% of the time, but against 3 other opponents that is a huge equity advantage. You just have to get your money in there and hope your hand holds up. Just my take though. Someone may have differing opinions. I just know I'm not folding AA with that preflop action and that board when the pot is almost 30 big bets.

[Wyers]

The bottom line is that you may only win this pot 50% of the time...

I don't think it is likely that you will win this pot anywhere near 50% of the time. Not having reads makes this a little tricky but the betting and raising into an opponent who has controlled the action to this point is rarely a good thing.

Given the action to this point, it isn't likely the 2nd raiser is some maniac.

Fold.

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way you can give this up at all in a pot of that size. The board is not very coordinated and looks like it might be good for you based on the preflop action. Were you against TT, JJ, or QQ?

The bottom line is that you may only win this pot 50% of the time, but against 3 other opponents that is a huge equity advantage. You just have to get your money in there and hope your hand holds up. Just my take though. Someone may have differing opinions. I just know I'm not folding AA with that preflop action and that board when the pot is almost 30 big bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you should try reading this thread.

You only need to be ahead much less than 50%. When the action gets to you . . . the odds of calling 2 cold are about 10:1 . . . the question then is: Will we beat two opponents more than 10% of the time?

I would probably call

[crunchy1]

I can understand calling the first 2BBs on the river. It's probably very, very close and, at the same time, also very possibly -EV. However...

There's a reasonable chance that MP2 is taking a shot on the river and ALSO that MP3 recognized this and is trying to push out better hands with something like AT or 99. The combination of these possibilities is probably more remote than I give it credit for. However, given that this is a possible scenario, and also given that there's no fear of a 3-bet (MP1 will be all-in, MP2 is not going to bluff 3-bet) I can understand a call.

That being said - when MP3 raises the river, Hero calls, MP1 does commit to showdown by going all-in, and MP2 can still 3-bet - it's pretty obvious that one-pair is not going to win in this pot.

I don't think that Hero's reaction to the initial river raise (whether it be calling OR folding) is costing Hero as much as some people seem to think. I think that calling a river 3-bet, in a protected pot, with one-pair is tossing away an extra big bet because AA looks pretty and the pot was big.

Agreed. Calling/folding the 2-bet is not so bad either way. Calling the 3-bet is very much a crying call.

[droolie]

When MP2 leads the river what were you thinking? I'm think he can beat 1 pair. When he 3-bets I know he can. Throw in the other callers and raisers and you win this hand 1% of the time. That's probably generous.

[gopnik]

reads would be nice, but I am leaning towards folding this river. MP3 has you beat like 100% of the time.

[gopnik]

[ QUOTE ]
^ when to fold is the question

[/ QUOTE ]
I fold this preflop