AA hand - MrWookie and I disagree

[LoaferGee12]

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Fold, he tells you on the turn he has JJ, and solidifies it by donking the River. The pot odds arent there for the few times he has KK I think.

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You're folding in a 13BB pot to an unknown?

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I messed up when I did the pot odds, but I still might, let me think about it.

Edit: Pokerstove says NO and I'm to tired to argue.

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Forget pokerstove. A fold here is awful. Don't you think KK is a very reasonable and likely hand that he could have here. He capped PF and on the flop. Got scared on the turn but then didn't want to miss a bet on the river. Yes he could have JJ but not even close to enough times to warrant a fold.

[2+2 wannabe]

I can't fold this river for one more - I think raising the river is a little optimistic however

as an aside - yesterday I had this nearly exact situation (capped pf and flop (I had KK), turn came queen and I called a solid player's turn raise and river bet - he showed 7 high)

[scotty34]

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I confess. I actually misread the action when I said I disagreed. I missed that SB was the PFcapper. I thought it was MP who raised and capped. I was thinking that an 8 was still in SB's range of hands. Since you're likely looking at a lot of hands that you crush on the flop, and you're not against an 8, I think this hand was played well. I think the river is a call and pray he doesn't have a set.

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Yea, I thought you must have misread that, but I thought I'd toss it out there anyways. Semi-interesting decision to make on the river.

[Nfinity]

Your right, I'm wrong

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Grunch.

I assume you disagree on the river. Being generous to the unknown it really looks like he made a set on the river. No way I'm folding but I don't don't raise here.

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I raise here no question. Call a three bet

There is basically ONE hand THREE combinations (JJ) that beats you here. QQ isnt slowing down on that turn. KK TT AQ AJ are all scared to death of missing a bet so are trying to get one last in in case you check AK behind.

You have to push that river.

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What Unknowns do you play with routinely OPEN CAP from the SB with AJ-AK and then follow up with CAPPING the flop when the miss on a paired board?

Where are these glorious players that you speak of en masse?

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Meh, SH.... he didnt say it was FR. Ok lets just pretend that the vil's hand ranges are JJ and KK 50-50 (even though I completely disagree, they definitely include TT 99 AQ and AJ to some degree, even the other AA but thats negligent).

JJ makes a bit of sense. First of the preflop cap is a bit off. How many unknowns cap here preflop from the blinds with JJ? Pretty aggressive. He bets his OP out, then again, fairly aggressive to not fear an overpair and slow down when you reraise him. He then gets an overcard which doesnt help his situation any, you still beat him with AA KK QQ regardless and.... bets out anyway?? You raise, and i guess the logic here is he fears your Q?? (He somehow put you on AQ?) Then his magic river comes and bets out a set. No. Wait. JJ makes as much sense as AK. Sorry, but that is ridiculous. Noone is that crazy aggressive then slows down to a Q. No. A8 is more possible than JJ. But.... lets pretend that JJ is still an even possibility.

Now, KK. Caps from SB because sklansky told him too right? Board is perfect, He bets out gets raised, he knows only one hand you can have beats him (AA) so he caps, he puts you much more likely on QQ, TT or JJ so knowing he is ahead of 3 out of 4 keeps betting. Then a horrible turn comes for him if he puts you on QQ, he bets out to test the waters and gets raised so slows down, now he is only beating half the hands. The river J comes down and he knows on the offchance you are a maniac or overplaying something he HAS to bet here with an OP to the board, only intended to play for 2 on the river. <---- Perfect Sense!

JJ = 3 combos
KK = 6 combos

Thats 2 - 1 IF we assume the two hands chances are even.

Folding for 13BB when your ahead this much is totally insane. Not even considered. So, continuing..... assuming a raise:

Of course with KK he calls winning you 1 and with JJ he 95% 3bets losing you 2 so raising is almost breakeven. But for the 5% of the time he fears QQ and calls his JJ even using this ridiculously small hand range you must raise.

And that is pushed even further by his larger hand range that im not even going to bother arguing because we have all seen time and time again the types of plays 'unknowns' make at PP, and the much higher likelihood of KK than JJ in the real world.

Edit: Just cause my grammar sucked

Edit 2: had to mention this cause this hand really made me think and i really believe anyone that said call (because they fear JJ) has it wrong:

In second level thinking, that Q is a million times more of a scare card for KK than for JJ. When you are willing to CAP preflop, then more importantly CAP the flop assuming you arent totally unknown to him what cards does he put YOU on?

Overcards arent CAPPING. TT isnt CAPPING. You have shown you have a premium pair. AA KK QQ JJ (depending on what he has). I would even go as far as to say JJ is unlikely to be played this hard against so much aggression that we can rule its impact here as fairly low.

With JJ: That Q changes nothing. If you had QQ your still ahead. If you had KK or AA your still ahead. This is why it doesnt make sense at all to think that that Q would have scared him this much.

With KK: He had you 90% on AA or QQ providing you arent crazy. Before that Q came he had one of those hands beat and was losing to the other one. That Q sets you and even after he bets you STILL arent slowing down. Its a huge scare card because it puts him behind every hand he could possibly puts you on. He calls the turn praying you have JJ/AQ overplayed.

"AA hand - Nfinity and I disagree"??

haha

[Nfinity]

I applaud your effort on your afforementioned analysis, but I heartily disagree with some points, not the least of which is villians increased likelihood to cap pre-flop and flop with A-hgh, even more so than a hand like JJ.

Now I'll be the first person to say not to over or under value the aspect of an "unknown"

An unknown is a gross culmination of all the different players you would see at a poker table, not the one whose qualities best fit the actions.

Let me put it this way, within a fairly large sample size of hands do you think you could find an average of LP-P players who play AJ-AK like this Pre-flop and on the flop? what about Rocks, or TAGs?

Now you could say the same about the Jacks, but I'd put money on it being closer to the realms of reality than AJ-AK with most if not all of these players.

[SCfuji]

what a terrible villain, he should have check-raised. if hes aggro enough to cap JJ on the flop and still lead the turn, then i think hes aggro enough to go for a check raise on the river. i put in one more.

[Wetdog]

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Fold, he tells you on the turn he has JJ, and solidifies it by donking the River. The pot odds arent there for the few times he has KK I think.

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I think he told you on the flop he has 8x and the Q scared him. I think he made a desperation bet on the river, or a value bet with J8.

edit: crap i forgot he capped PF. It's JJ.