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Old 10-05-2005, 09:39 PM
durrrr durrrr is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 81
Default Re: Tough spot with an overpair (50-100). A possible squeeze play?

If villain is good enough to mix up his play and push w/ JhTh or w/e u do beat on the turn he is also good enough to just call w/ a set/34 on the flop assuming you'll bet at least something on the turn. I'm not saying this is a fold, just that it is in no way a clearcut decision. Seeing as the pot is laying you 2.6-1, and you have 2 outs at least 95% of the time (cmon how often does he really have 34 here) Your equity cant be that bad. I'd say your probably ahead at least 1/3 times here(assuming i take your description on him to be correct), altho he does outdraw, and there is still a good chance that the bb has you beat, or will after the river. All this factors into a ridiculously tough decision which i would need to know villain better to answer accurately, although it appears to be a call- albeit a very close one.

P.S. Betting the turn is definitely the right line- at first glance i like your betsize, but im sure that an argument could be made for both larger and smaller bets
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