Is this normal (to be expected)?

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Hey guys,

My last 18,300 hands I'm at (.32) bb/100 at 10/20 (previously at 2.3 over 190k hands w/variance of 15.2 per 100).

I don't know the math (which is why I'm asking) is this normal? How likely is this to occur if my true winrate is ~2bb/100?

Just never had anything like this happen before which is why I'm asking...

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[Victor]

i just had 18k at -2/100. my lat 5 are at +5. fun game.

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i just had 18k at -2/100. my lat 5 are at +5. fun game.

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Eh...makes me feel better I suppose [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

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[Lmn55d]

you read sxb's threat about his 650BB downswing at 10/20 , right? He was a 3bb winner after 500k hands. El Diablo also reported a 30k breakeven streak in this game and that was when the game was easier. Also rake increase might contribue a bit. Other winning posters have experienced similar stretches.

But yes, from what I know it is normal.

[beachbum]

Check out http://www.svenskpoker.com/math.php?...Calc=calculate

Plug in 18,300 hands, 2.0 for a winrate, std dev of 15.2, and a 95% confidence interval.

4.2 BB/100 > winrate > -0.2 BB/100

[Victor]

i think that calculator is somewhat pessimistic....

[SomethingClever]

Yep, I think it's normal.

I went ~140,000 hands at 2+ across various limits, then did 55k at like 0.3

[Danenania]

My first 50k hands of 10/20 6-max starting nearly a year ago I ran at a touch over 3bb/100. Then had a 18k breakeven stretch that made my next 50k abut 1.6bb/100. So my first 100k was about 2.3bb/100. Then had maybe 40k more go steadily at this rate. And currently my last 85k hands I have run at 1.5bb/100 (these hands include a large downswing and a few longish breakeven streaks). For a grand total of almost exactly 2bb/100 over ~ 225k hands.

My game has certainly changed around a lot back and forth in this timespan. I would like to think I've gotten much better but how could I be sure? The results certainly don't say that. Of course there are other factors like game toughness and typical time of day that I get my hours in. Now rake is an added factor. It is honestly pretty annoying to have started out running very hot when I know I was making tons of dumb mistakes then watch my results go gradually downhill as I "improve". But hey what can be done? It's still a ton of money. And the most reliable knowledge I've gained is that above all else, there is a TON of [censored] variance present in this game. Probably more than the vast majority of us will ever experience or can even imagine.

So are your results normal? In my experience they are extremely so and nothing to worry about at all as long as you aren't letting them mess with your play. Keep playing, don't tilt, and don't spend energy where it can't possibly help you. Work on things you can control. Maybe your next 100k will be 3.5bb/100. Who knows? The more I play the more I realize that despite its robust aura and reputation, 100k hands is just a paltry paltry sum. Sure it can give you confidence that you win, but for nailing down a winrate with any semblance of certainty it still just isn't squat.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
The more I play the more I realize that despite its robust aura and reputation, 100k hands is just a paltry paltry sum. Sure it can give you confidence that you win, but for nailing down a winrate with any semblance of certainty it still just isn't squat.

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well put.

[joker122]

of course it's normal. it's really peculiar that you haven't experienced one of these before since i know you've played several hundred thousands of hands.