Middle Set And The Cap-Fest...Where Do I Slow Down?

DerFleischmeister · #1 05-01-2005, 08:26 PM

CO is TPA: 15/1.2/1.75, and his postflop aggro numbers decrease by later streets, suggesting he's on his way to solid play, with a little more PFRing. The rest are fishies.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) Convertin' Tool

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, CO calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls, CO caps, SB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (13.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, CO raises, SB calls, UTG calls, Hero....?

(to be continued, after responses)

Jacob_Gilliam · #2 05-01-2005, 08:30 PM

Hero reraises. The only logical hand that he could have that beats yours is JJ, and thats not that likely. He probably has an overpair, TPTK, or a flush draw. Make him and the fishies pay dearly to try and outdraw you.

irishpint · #3 05-01-2005, 08:53 PM

agreed. 44 is possible, but u beat that. JJ would have raised PF, we hope. make everything else pay.

Greg J · #4 05-01-2005, 08:55 PM

3 bet and slow down if he caps.

Shillx · #5 05-01-2005, 08:58 PM

Come on this is a no brainer. Look at the massive overlay you have here! You only need to have the best hand like 25% of the time in this spot to be putting in raises. Even if he has JJ 70% of the time you need to keep spraying here.

Brad

GrunchCan · #6 05-01-2005, 08:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
3 bet and slow down if he caps.

[/ QUOTE ]

cmwck · #7 05-01-2005, 08:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
agreed. 44 is possible, but u beat that. JJ would have raised PF, we hope. make everything else pay.

[/ QUOTE ]

Over how many hands are these stats? A player this tight and passive preflop would not raise JJ, but would definitely limp with it in late position.

shadow29 · #8 05-01-2005, 09:05 PM

There are six (!!!) players in the pot.

3-bet.

You're making your money off the others when he has JJ and you're making even more when he doesn't.

DerFleischmeister · #9 05-01-2005, 09:16 PM

...Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls, CO caps, SB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

From about the turn raise, I'm putting him on either 44 (most likely), or a busted preflop LRR attempt (from CO!) with AA/KK. After he capped the turn, I wasn't so sure, so I intended to C/C the river. Fortunately:

River: (33.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO checks.

Final Pot: 33.50 BB

SB has Ks Kc (one pair, kings).
UTG has 8h Kh (!!!) (flush, king high).
Hero has 5h 5s (three of a kind, fives).
MP2 has Js Ac (one pair, jacks).
CO has Jc Jd (three of a kind, jacks).
Outcome: UTG wins 33.50 BB.

Well, at least UTG's FPS saved me a BB. Could I REALLY put CO on JJ any earlier than the turn cap? Would his flop cold-call 2/cap been a good indicator of JJ?

Bodhi · #10 05-01-2005, 11:23 PM

Hero 3-bets.

You can't go around fearing bigger sets. Raise now and get their money.